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FOMC · Federal Funds Rate · 2021 → 2026

Sejarah Kadar Faedah Fed(2021–2026)

Setiap bulan sejak Januari 2021: keputusan FOMC, data makro dan reaksi pasaran sekali imbas. Terkini di atas.

Kongsi
Tertinggi tempoh5.25–5.50%Jul 2023
Terendah tempoh0.00–0.25%Jan 2021
Perubahan tempoh▲ +375bpberbanding Jan 2021
Garis masa bulanan

Naik Potong Kekal

Kadar (had atas)

Tindih

Klik carta untuk ke bulan itu · Data makro = bulan rujukan (diterbitkan bulan berikutnya)

20262026

  1. Okt2026
    Okt’26
    Kekal Neutral Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedWarshPresidenTrump
    3.75–4.00%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Minit September: pegawai melihat kenaikan lagi mungkin tahun ini, masanya belum jelas.

    Bon 2T4.79%▼Bon 10T5.21%▼2s10s+37bp▼VIX15.27▼ DXY102.07+0.61%
    Sentimen pasaranBerwaspada kenaikan lanjutan
    Nasdaq 100-1.51% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +73,798 · LF -19,212 10-06
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “In the meeting just concluded, the FOMC decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by a ¼ percentage point to 3¾ to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  2. Sep2026
    ▲Sep’26
    Naik +25bp Hawkish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedWarshPresidenTrump
    3.75–4.00%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum▲ +25bpberbanding 1 bulan▲ +25bp

    Naik 25 bp sebulat suara untuk menyokong kembalinya inflasi ke 2% lebih cepat.

    CPI (YoY)3.7%▲Pengangguran4.2%▲Gaji bukan ladang+29k▼Bon 2T4.88%▲Bon 10T5.29%▲2s10s+41bp■VIX16.34▲ DXY101.45+2.03% Median SEP4.1% ’26 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+1.26%NDX+0.02%
    Sentimen pasaranPengetatan bermula semula (hawkish)
    Nasdaq 100+3.23% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +69,744 · LF -24,723 09-29
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “In the meeting just concluded, the FOMC decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by a ¼ percentage point to 3¾ to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  3. Ogo2026
    Ogo’26
    Kekal Hawkish Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedWarshPresidenTrump
    3.50–3.75%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Di Jackson Hole, Warsh menekankan kewaspadaan inflasi dan memberi isyarat kemungkinan kenaikan.

    CPI (YoY)3.4%▲PCE teras3.0%■Pengangguran4.1%■Gaji bukan ladang+133k▲Bon 2T4.34%▲Bon 10T4.75%■2s10s+41bp▼VIX14.92▼ DXY99.43-0.37%
    Sentimen pasaranRisiko kenaikan meningkat (hawkish)
    Nasdaq 100+4.18% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +73,216 · LF -41,232 08-25
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  4. Jul2026
    Jul’26
    Kekal Neutral FOMC
    Pengerusi FedWarshPresidenTrump
    3.50–3.75%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Dikekalkan 9-3; tiga penentang ingin naik 25 bp. · Bantahan: Hammack, Kashkari, Logan preferred 25 bp hike

    CPI (YoY)3.3%▼PCE teras3.0%■Pengangguran4.1%▼Gaji bukan ladang-10k▼Bon 2T4.28%▲Bon 10T4.75%▲2s10s+47bp▲VIX15.99▼ DXY99.80-1.37% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas-0.06%NDX-2.06%
    Sentimen pasaranTekanan kenaikan mengukuh
    Nasdaq 100-6.61% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +76,759 · LF -58,298 07-28
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, as you know, our Committee decided to vote by a 9-to-3 vote to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3½ to 3¾ percent.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  5. Jun2026
    Jun’26
    Kekal Neutral FOMC
    Pengerusi FedWarshPresidenTrump
    3.50–3.75%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Ketidaktentuan tinggi akibat konflik Timur Tengah; kejutan bekalan termasuk tenaga mengekalkan inflasi tinggi. Dikekalkan sebulat suara 12-0.

    CPI (YoY)3.5%▼PCE teras3.0%▼Pengangguran4.2%▼Gaji bukan ladang+31k▼Bon 2T4.14%▲Bon 10T4.44%▼2s10s+30bp▼VIX16.45▲ DXY101.19+2.31% Median SEP3.8% ’26 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.62%NDX-0.99%
    Sentimen pasaranIltizam kestabilan harga
    Nasdaq 100-0.19% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +67,310 · LF -68,617 06-30
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “As you saw a few moments ago, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the fed funds rate at 3½ to 3¾ percent, in support of the Fed’s dual mandate.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  6. Mei2026
    Mei’26
    Kekal Neutral Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedPowell~5/22Warsh5/22~PresidenTrump
    3.50–3.75%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Kevin Warsh mengangkat sumpah sebagai Pengerusi Fed pada 22 Mei di tengah-tengah inflasi yang naik.

    CPI (YoY)4.2%▲PCE teras3.2%▲Pengangguran4.3%■Gaji bukan ladang+63k▼Bon 2T3.98%▲Bon 10T4.45%▲2s10s+47bp▼VIX15.32▼ DXY98.91+0.85%
    Sentimen pasaranTunggu dan lihat Pengerusi baru
    Nasdaq 100+10.49% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +85,063 · LF -51,679 05-26
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  7. Apr2026
    Apr’26
    Kekal Hawkish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenTrump
    3.50–3.75%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Inflasi tinggi, sebahagian karena harga tenaga global. Dikekalkan; tiga ahli menentang kecenderungan pelonggaran. · Bantahan: Miran cut; Hammack, Kashkari, Logan against easing bias

    CPI (YoY)3.8%▲PCE teras3.1%■Pengangguran4.3%■Gaji bukan ladang+148k▼Bon 2T3.88%▲Bon 10T4.40%▲2s10s+52bp▲VIX16.89▼ DXY98.08-1.88% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas-1.02%NDX+0.58%
    Sentimen pasaranMuncul peralihan hawkish
    Nasdaq 100+15.64% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +78,698 · LF -35,950 04-28
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  8. Mac2026
    Mac’26
    Kekal Neutral FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenTrump
    3.50–3.75%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Dikekalkan; penambahan pekerjaan rendah, pengangguran hampir tidak berubah, inflasi agak tinggi. · Bantahan: Miran preferred 25 bp cut

    CPI (YoY)3.3%▲PCE teras3.1%▲Pengangguran4.3%▼Gaji bukan ladang+214k▲Bon 2T3.79%▲Bon 10T4.30%▲2s10s+51bp▼VIX25.25▲ DXY99.96+2.41% Median SEP3.4% ’26 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas-2.24%NDX-1.43%
    Sentimen pasaranTunggu dan lihat
    Nasdaq 100-4.89% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +57,650 · LF -37,103 03-31
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  9. Feb2026
    Feb’26
    Kekal Neutral Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenTrump
    3.50–3.75%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Minit Januari: pegawai berpecah mengenai arah dasar dan membahas dampak AI pada ekonomi.

    CPI (YoY)2.4%■PCE teras3.0%▲Pengangguran4.4%▲Gaji bukan ladang-156k▼Bon 2T3.38%▼Bon 10T3.97%▼2s10s+59bp▼VIX19.86▲ DXY97.61+0.64%
    Sentimen pasaranTunggu dan lihat penahanan panjang
    Nasdaq 100-2.32% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +69,294 · LF -16,554 02-24
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy rate unchanged.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  10. Jan2026
    Jan’26
    Kekal Neutral FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenTrump
    3.50–3.75%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Pertumbuhan solid, pertambahan pekerjaan rendah, pengangguran mula stabil. Dikekalkan. · Bantahan: Miran and Waller preferred 25 bp cut

    CPI (YoY)2.4%▼PCE teras2.9%■Pengangguran4.3%▼Gaji bukan ladang+160k▲Bon 2T3.52%▲Bon 10T4.26%▲2s10s+74bp▲VIX17.44▲ DXY96.99-1.31% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+4.35%NDX+0.32%
    Sentimen pasaranHenti seketika pemotongan
    Nasdaq 100+1.20% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +79,357 · LF -16,838 01-27
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy rate unchanged.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2

20252025

  1. Dis2025
    ▼Dis’25
    Potong -25bp Dovish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenTrump
    3.50–3.75%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum▼ -25bpberbanding 1 bulan▼ -25bp

    Pemotongan 25 bp ketiga berturut-turut dengan tiga bantahan (satu potongan lebih besar, dua tahan). · Bantahan: Miran 50 bp; Goolsbee and Schmid hold

    CPI (YoY)2.7%■PCE teras2.9%▲Pengangguran4.4%▼Gaji bukan ladang-17k▼Bon 2T3.47%■Bon 10T4.18%▲2s10s+71bp▲VIX14.95▼ DXY98.28-1.19% Median SEP3.6% ’25 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas-0.27%NDX+0.42%
    Sentimen pasaranPemotongan hampir tamat
    Nasdaq 100-0.73% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +81,201 · LF -25,674 12-30
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “In support of our goals, and in light of the balance of risks to employment and inflation, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  2. Nov2025
    Nov’25
    Kekal Neutral Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenTrump
    3.75–4.00%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Minit Oktober: ramai pegawai cenderung menentang pemotongan Disember.

    CPI (YoY)2.7%PCE teras2.7%■Pengangguran4.5%Gaji bukan ladang+41k▲Bon 2T3.47%▼Bon 10T4.02%▼2s10s+55bp▲VIX16.35▼ DXY99.46-0.34%
    Sentimen pasaranPemotongan Disember diragui
    Nasdaq 100-1.64% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +77,156 · LF +9,671 11-25
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “In support of our goals, and in light of the balance of risks to employment and inflation, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  3. Okt2025
    ▼Okt’25
    Potong -25bp Dovish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenTrump
    3.75–4.00%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum▼ -25bpberbanding 1 bulan▼ -25bp

    Potong 25 bp; pertambahan pekerjaan perlahan, inflasi naik sejak awal tahun. · Bantahan: Miran 50 bp; Schmid hold

    PCE teras2.7%▼Gaji bukan ladang-140k▼Bon 2T3.60%■Bon 10T4.11%▼2s10s+51bp▼VIX17.44▲ DXY99.80+2.08% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.44%NDX+0.41%
    Sentimen pasaranPotong di tengah-tengah perbezaan pendapat
    Nasdaq 100+4.77% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +76,269 · LF +11,174 10-28
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “In support of our goals, and in light of the balance of risks to employment and inflation, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 3
  4. Sep2025
    ▼Sep’25
    Potong -25bp Dovish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenTrump
    4.00–4.25%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum▼ -25bpberbanding 1 bulan▼ -25bp

    Pemotongan disambung semula (25 bp) karena pekerjaan perlahan dan pengangguran naik sedikit. · Bantahan: Miran preferred 50 bp

    CPI (YoY)3.0%▲PCE teras2.8%▼Pengangguran4.4%▲Gaji bukan ladang+76k▲Bon 2T3.60%▲Bon 10T4.16%▼2s10s+56bp▼VIX16.28▲ DXY97.770.00% Median SEP3.6% ’25 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas-0.20%NDX-0.21%
    Sentimen pasaranPelonggaran kembali
    Nasdaq 100+5.40% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +79,712 · LF -1,624 09-30
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “In support of our goals, and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  5. Ogo2025
    Ogo’25
    Kekal Neutral Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenTrump
    4.25–4.50%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Di Jackson Hole, Powell berkata perubahan keseimbangan risiko "mungkin mewajarkan" penyesuaian dasar.

    CPI (YoY)2.9%▲PCE teras2.9%▲Pengangguran4.3%■Gaji bukan ladang-70k▼Bon 2T3.59%▼Bon 10T4.23%▼2s10s+64bp▲VIX15.36▼ DXY97.77-2.26%
    Sentimen pasaranHarapan potongan September mengukuh
    Nasdaq 100+0.85% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +80,177 · LF -16,901 08-26
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  6. Jul2025
    Jul’25
    Kekal Neutral FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenTrump
    4.25–4.50%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Dikekalkan; pertumbuhan separuh pertama perlahan. Dua gabenor bantahan meminta potongan. · Bantahan: Bowman and Waller preferred 25 bp cut

    CPI (YoY)2.7%■PCE teras2.8%■Pengangguran4.3%▲Gaji bukan ladang+64k▲Bon 2T3.94%▲Bon 10T4.37%▲2s10s+43bp▼VIX16.72▼ DXY100.03+3.25% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas-0.85%NDX+0.16%
    Sentimen pasaranJawatankuasa berpecah
    Nasdaq 100+2.38% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +73,263 · LF -21,485 07-29
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  7. Jun2025
    Jun’25
    Kekal Neutral FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenTrump
    4.25–4.50%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Dikekalkan; ketidaktentuan menurun tetapi masih tinggi.

    CPI (YoY)2.7%▲PCE teras2.8%■Pengangguran4.1%▼Gaji bukan ladang-20k▼Bon 2T3.72%▼Bon 10T4.24%▼2s10s+52bp■VIX16.73▼ DXY96.88-2.47% Median SEP3.9% ’25 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.04%NDX0.00%
    Sentimen pasaranMasih menunggu
    Nasdaq 100+6.27% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +49,978 · LF -32,010 06-24
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  8. Mei2025
    Mei’25
    Kekal Neutral FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenTrump
    4.25–4.50%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Dikekalkan; risiko pengangguran dan inflasi lebih tinggi dinilai meningkat.

    CPI (YoY)2.4%▲PCE teras2.8%▲Pengangguran4.3%▲Gaji bukan ladang+13k▼Bon 2T3.89%▲Bon 10T4.41%▲2s10s+52bp▼VIX18.57▼ DXY99.33-0.14% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas-0.90%NDX+0.39%
    Sentimen pasaranKebimbangan stagflasi
    Nasdaq 100+9.04% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +51,383 · LF -47,768 05-27
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  9. Apr2025
    Apr’25
    Kekal Neutral Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenTrump
    4.25–4.50%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Pasaran bergolak setelah pengumuman tarif; risalah Mac menonjolkan risiko inflasi lebih tinggi dan pertumbuhan lebih lambat.

    CPI (YoY)2.3%▼PCE teras2.7%▲Pengangguran4.2%■Gaji bukan ladang+108k▲Bon 2T3.60%▼Bon 10T4.17%▼2s10s+57bp▲VIX24.70▲ DXY99.47-4.55%
    Sentimen pasaranKejutan tarif, risk-off
    Nasdaq 100+1.52% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +39,720 · LF -26,356 04-29
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 3
  10. Mac2025
    Mac’25
    Kekal Neutral FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenTrump
    4.25–4.50%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Dikekalkan. QT diperlambat lagi mulai April; ketidaktentuan prospek meningkat. · Bantahan: Waller (on QT pace only)

    CPI (YoY)2.4%▼PCE teras2.6%▼Pengangguran4.2%■Gaji bukan ladang+67k▲Bon 2T3.89%▼Bon 10T4.23%▼2s10s+34bp▲VIX22.28▲ DXY104.21-3.16% Median SEP3.9% ’25 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.01%NDX+1.30%
    Sentimen pasaranBerwaspada ketidaktentuan
    Nasdaq 100-7.69% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +39,733 · LF -35,890 03-25
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  11. Feb2025
    Feb’25
    Kekal Neutral Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenTrump
    4.25–4.50%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Minit Januari: bimbang tarif dan perubahan dasar bisa mencetuskan inflasi.

    CPI (YoY)2.8%▼PCE teras2.8%■Pengangguran4.2%▲Gaji bukan ladang+42k▲Bon 2T3.99%▼Bon 10T4.24%▼2s10s+25bp▼VIX19.63▲ DXY107.61-0.70%
    Sentimen pasaranBerwaspada inflasi tarif
    Nasdaq 100-2.76% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +58,532 · LF -27,871 02-25
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  12. Jan2025
    Jan’25
    Kekal Neutral FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden~1/20Trump1/20~
    4.25–4.50%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Pengangguran stabil, inflasi agak tinggi. Pelonggaran dihentikan seketika.

    CPI (YoY)3.0%▲PCE teras2.8%▼Pengangguran4.0%▼Gaji bukan ladang-48k▼Bon 2T4.22%▼Bon 10T4.58%■2s10s+36bp▲VIX16.43▼ DXY108.37-0.11% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.08%NDX-0.24%
    Sentimen pasaranTunggu dan lihat
    Nasdaq 100+2.22% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +59,072 · LF -49,925 01-28
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2

20242024

  1. Dis2024
    ▼Dis’24
    Potong -25bp Hawkish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    4.25–4.50%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum▼ -25bpberbanding 1 bulan▼ -25bp

    Potong 25 bp; ditambahkan frasa "tahap dan masa" penyesuaian berikutnya. · Bantahan: Hammack preferred hold

    CPI (YoY)2.9%▲PCE teras2.9%■Pengangguran4.1%▼Gaji bukan ladang+237k▲Bon 2T4.25%▲Bon 10T4.58%▲2s10s+33bp▲VIX17.35▲ DXY108.49+2.60% Median SEP4.4% ’24 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas-0.33%NDX-3.60%
    Sentimen pasaranPotong bernada hawkish
    Nasdaq 100+0.39% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +68,625 · LF -32,054 12-31
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “To that end, today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to take another step in reducing the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  2. Nov2024
    ▼Nov’24
    Potong -25bp Dovish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    4.50–4.75%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum▼ -25bpberbanding 1 bulan▼ -25bp

    Potong 25 bp lagi; pasaran buruh secara umum melonggar.

    CPI (YoY)2.7%▲PCE teras2.9%■Pengangguran4.2%▲Gaji bukan ladang+134k▲Bon 2T4.13%▼Bon 10T4.18%▼2s10s+5bp▼VIX13.51▼ DXY105.74+1.69% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+1.10%NDX+1.54%
    Sentimen pasaranPotong diteruskan, laju dipermengenaikan
    Nasdaq 100+5.23% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +76,184 · LF -44,934 11-26
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, the FOMC decided to take another step in reducing the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  3. Okt2024
    Okt’24
    Kekal Neutral Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    4.75–5.00%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Minit September: "mayoritas besar" menyokong potongan 50 bp, meski pandangan berpecah.

    CPI (YoY)2.6%▲PCE teras2.9%▲Pengangguran4.1%■Gaji bukan ladang+33k▼Bon 2T4.16%▲Bon 10T4.28%▲2s10s+12bp▼VIX23.16▲ DXY103.98+3.18%
    Sentimen pasaranHarapan potongan bertahap
    Nasdaq 100-0.85% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +69,191 · LF -42,330 10-29
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to reduce the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by ½ percentage point.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  4. Sep2024
    ▼Sep’24
    Potong -50bp Dovish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    4.75–5.00%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum▼ -50bpberbanding 1 bulan▼ -50bp

    Potong pertama dalam lebih dari empat tahun: potongan besar 50 bp saat inflasi menghampiri 2%. · Bantahan: Bowman preferred 25 bp

    CPI (YoY)2.4%▼PCE teras2.8%▼Pengangguran4.1%▼Gaji bukan ladang+155k▲Bon 2T3.66%▼Bon 10T3.81%▼2s10s+15bp▲VIX16.73▲ DXY100.78-0.90% Median SEP4.4% ’24 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.24%NDX-0.45%
    Sentimen pasaranSiklus pelonggaran bermula (dovish)
    Nasdaq 100+2.48% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +64,517 · LF -46,301 09-24
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to reduce the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by ½ percentage point.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  5. Ogo2024
    Ogo’24
    Kekal Dovish Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    5.25–5.50%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Di Jackson Hole, Powell berkata "sudah tiba masanya dasar disesuaikan", isyarat potongan September.

    CPI (YoY)2.6%▼PCE teras2.9%▲Pengangguran4.2%■Gaji bukan ladang+9k▼Bon 2T3.91%▼Bon 10T3.91%▼2s10s0bp▲VIX15.00▼ DXY101.70-2.31%
    Sentimen pasaranPotong segera (dovish)
    Nasdaq 100+1.10% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +72,841 · LF -47,616 08-27
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “The time has come for policy to adjust.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  6. Jul2024
    Jul’24
    Kekal Neutral FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    5.25–5.50%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Pertambahan pekerjaan perlahan, pengangguran naik. Dikekalkan, memberi perhatian kepada risiko kedua mandat.

    CPI (YoY)2.9%▼PCE teras2.8%■Pengangguran4.2%▲Gaji bukan ladang+53k▼Bon 2T4.29%▼Bon 10T4.09%▼2s10s-20bp▲VIX16.36▲ DXY104.10-1.67% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.89%NDX+3.01%
    Sentimen pasaranPotong September sudah diambil kira
    Nasdaq 100-1.63% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +72,026 · LF -30,874 07-30
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  7. Jun2024
    Jun’24
    Kekal Neutral FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    5.25–5.50%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    "Kemajuan lanjut yang sederhana" pada inflasi. Dikekalkan.

    CPI (YoY)3.0%▼PCE teras2.8%■Pengangguran4.1%▲Gaji bukan ladang+87k▲Bon 2T4.71%▼Bon 10T4.36%▼2s10s-35bp▲VIX12.44▼ DXY105.87+1.15% Median SEP5.1% ’24 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+1.21%NDX+1.33%
    Sentimen pasaranFokus pada masa potongan pertama
    Nasdaq 100+6.18% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +87,833 · LF -40,408 06-25
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  8. Mei2024
    Mei’24
    Kekal Neutral FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    5.25–5.50%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Dikekalkan. Pelambatan pengurangan kunci kira-kira (QT) mulai Jun diumumkan.

    CPI (YoY)3.2%▼PCE teras2.8%▼Pengangguran3.9%■Gaji bukan ladang+78k▲Bon 2T4.89%▼Bon 10T4.51%▼2s10s-38bp▼VIX12.92▼ DXY104.67-1.46% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.35%NDX-0.70%
    Sentimen pasaranKebimbangan kenaikan reda
    Nasdaq 100+6.28% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +91,452 · LF -45,428 05-28
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings, though at a slower pace.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  9. Apr2024
    Apr’24
    Kekal Hawkish Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    5.25–5.50%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Minit Mac dan data inflasi yang melekit melemahkan keyakinan disinflasi.

    CPI (YoY)3.4%▼PCE teras3.0%▼Pengangguran3.9%■Gaji bukan ladang+64k▼Bon 2T5.04%▲Bon 10T4.69%▲2s10s-35bp▲VIX15.65▲ DXY106.22+1.60%
    Sentimen pasaranBimbang inflasi melekit (hawkish)
    Nasdaq 100-4.46% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +74,176 · LF -51,299 04-30
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  10. Mac2024
    Mac’24
    Kekal Neutral FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    5.25–5.50%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Pekerjaan kuat, inflasi turun tetapi masih tinggi. Dikekalkan.

    CPI (YoY)3.5%▲PCE teras3.1%▼Pengangguran3.9%■Gaji bukan ladang+228k▲Bon 2T4.59%▼Bon 10T4.20%▼2s10s-39bp■VIX13.01▼ DXY104.55+0.37% Median SEP4.6% ’24 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.06%NDX+1.15%
    Sentimen pasaranPandangan potongan akhir tahun kekal
    Nasdaq 100+1.17% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +83,195 · LF -46,242 03-26
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  11. Feb2024
    Feb’24
    Kekal Neutral Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    5.25–5.50%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Minit Januari: pegawai waspada memangkas terlalu cepat; jangkaan potongan Mac pudar.

    CPI (YoY)3.2%▲PCE teras3.2%■Pengangguran3.9%▲Gaji bukan ladang+206k▲Bon 2T4.64%▲Bon 10T4.25%▲2s10s-39bp▼VIX13.40▼ DXY104.16+0.86%
    Sentimen pasaranJangkaan potongan berkurang, aset berisiko kukuh
    Nasdaq 100+5.29% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +93,401 · LF -47,714 02-27
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  12. Jan2024
    Jan’24
    Kekal Neutral FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    5.25–5.50%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Pertumbuhan solid, inflasi reda. Frasa kecenderungan pengetatan dibuang; tidak tergesa-gesa memangkas.

    CPI (YoY)3.1%▼PCE teras3.2%■Pengangguran3.7%▼Gaji bukan ladang+175k▲Bon 2T4.27%▲Bon 10T3.99%▲2s10s-28bp▲VIX14.35▲ DXY103.27+1.91% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.83%NDX-1.94%
    Sentimen pasaranHarapan potongan dini berkurang
    Nasdaq 100+1.85% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +97,393 · LF -26,655 01-30
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2

20232023

  1. Dis2023
    Dis’23
    Kekal Dovish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    5.25–5.50%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Pertumbuhan perlahan; inflasi turun tetapi masih tinggi. Dikekalkan, unjuran menunjukkan potongan 2024.

    CPI (YoY)3.3%▲PCE teras3.2%▼Pengangguran3.8%▲Gaji bukan ladang+154k▲Bon 2T4.23%▼Bon 10T3.88%▼2s10s-35bp▲VIX12.45▼ DXY101.33-2.10% Median SEP5.4% ’23 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.21%NDX+1.27%
    Sentimen pasaranHarapan potongan meluas (dovish)
    Nasdaq 100+5.51% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +90,636 · LF -44,442 12-26
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “We’ve raised our policy interest rate by 5¼ percentage points and have continued to reduce our securities holdings at a brisk pace.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  2. Nov2023
    Nov’23
    Kekal Neutral FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    5.25–5.50%
    berbanding keputusan sebelumberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Pertumbuhan S3 "kuat", pekerjaan solid, inflasi masih tinggi. Dikekalkan supaya kekal ketat.

    CPI (YoY)3.1%▼PCE teras3.4%▼Pengangguran3.7%▼Gaji bukan ladang+127k▼Bon 2T4.73%▼Bon 10T4.37%▼2s10s-36bp▼VIX12.92▼ DXY103.50-2.96% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas-0.34%NDX+1.77%
    Sentimen pasaranBerwaspada kadar faedah tinggi lebih lama
    Nasdaq 100+10.67% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +95,326 · LF -2,133 11-28
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “We have raised our policy interest rate by 5¼ percentage points and have continued to reduce our securities holdings at a brisk pace.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  3. Okt2023
    Okt’23
    Kekal Neutral Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    5.25–5.50%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Minit September diterbitkan; hasil bon jangka panjang melonjak, Fed beralih "tunggu dan lihat" mengenai kenaikan.

    CPI (YoY)3.3%▼PCE teras3.6%▼Pengangguran3.9%▲Gaji bukan ladang+159k▲Bon 2T5.07%▲Bon 10T4.88%▲2s10s-19bp▲VIX18.14▲ DXY106.66+0.46%
    Sentimen pasaranBimbang kadar faedah tinggi lebih lama
    Nasdaq 100-2.08% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +45,683 · LF -8,572 10-31
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  4. Sep2023
    Sep’23
    Kekal Neutral FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    5.25–5.50%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Dikekalkan; satu lagi kenaikan masih diunjurkan tahun ini dan pemotongan 2024 dikurangkan.

    CPI (YoY)3.7%■PCE teras3.7%▼Pengangguran3.7%■Gaji bukan ladang+156k▼Bon 2T5.03%▲Bon 10T4.59%▲2s10s-44bp▲VIX17.52▲ DXY106.17+2.46% Median SEP5.6% ’23 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.69%NDX-1.46%
    Sentimen pasaranBerwaspada kadar tinggi lebih lama
    Nasdaq 100-5.07% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +58,523 · LF -28,192 09-26
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, we decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  5. Ogo2023
    Ogo’23
    Kekal Hawkish Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    5.25–5.50%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Di Jackson Hole Powell berkata Fed 'bersedia menaikkan kadar lagi jika sesuai'; hasil bon 10 tahun tertinggi sejak 2007.

    CPI (YoY)3.7%▲PCE teras3.8%▼Pengangguran3.7%▲Gaji bukan ladang+218k▲Bon 2T4.85%▼Bon 10T4.09%▲2s10s-76bp▲VIX13.57▼ DXY103.62+1.73%
    Sentimen pasaranKadar tinggi lebih lama (hawkish)
    Nasdaq 100-1.62% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +63,454 · LF -27,040 08-29
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  6. Jul2023
    ▲Jul’23
    Naik +25bp Hawkish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    5.25–5.50%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum▲ +25bpberbanding 1 bulan▲ +25bp

    Naik 25 bp ke paras tertinggi 22 tahun (5.25–5.50%), ruang kenaikan lagi dibiarkan terbuka.

    CPI (YoY)3.3%▲PCE teras4.2%▼Pengangguran3.5%▼Gaji bukan ladang+163k▼Bon 2T4.88%▲Bon 10T3.97%▲2s10s-91bp▲VIX13.63▲ DXY101.86-1.02% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.33%NDX-0.40%
    Sentimen pasaranKadar puncak hampir
    Nasdaq 100+3.81% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +63,713 · LF -40,165 07-25
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Despite elevated inflation, longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  7. Jun2023
    Jun’23
    Kekal Hawkish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    5.00–5.25%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Jeda pertama selepas 10 kenaikan; carta titik memberi isyarat dua kenaikan lagi tahun ini.

    CPI (YoY)3.1%▼PCE teras4.4%▼Pengangguran3.6%■Gaji bukan ladang+225k▼Bon 2T4.87%▲Bon 10T3.81%▲2s10s-106bp▼VIX13.59▼ DXY102.91-1.35% Median SEP5.6% ’23 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.53%NDX+0.70%
    Sentimen pasaranJeda hawkish
    Nasdaq 100+6.49% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +64,759 · LF -25,634 06-27
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Looking ahead, nearly all Committee participants view it as likely that some further rate increases will be appropriate this year to bring inflation down to 2 percent over time.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  8. Mei2023
    ▲Mei’23
    Naik +25bp Hawkish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    5.00–5.25%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum▲ +25bpberbanding 1 bulan▲ +25bp

    Kenaikan ke-10 berturut-turut (25 bp); frasa jangkaan kenaikan lanjut dibuang, membuka ruang untuk jeda.

    CPI (YoY)4.1%▼PCE teras4.8%▼Pengangguran3.6%▲Gaji bukan ladang+280k▲Bon 2T4.40%▲Bon 10T3.64%▲2s10s-76bp▼VIX17.94▲ DXY104.32+2.61% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.68%NDX-0.64%
    Sentimen pasaranPenghujung kenaikan kelihatan
    Nasdaq 100+7.61% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +64,444 · LF -45,016 05-30
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Since early last year, we have raised interest rates by a total of 5 percentage points in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  9. Apr2023
    Apr’23
    Kekal Neutral Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    4.75–5.00%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Minit Mac: kakitangan Fed mengunjurkan 'kemelesetan ringan' lewat tahun selepas gejolak perbankan.

    CPI (YoY)5.0%▲PCE teras4.9%■Pengangguran3.4%▼Gaji bukan ladang+241k▲Bon 2T4.04%▼Bon 10T3.44%▼2s10s-60bp▼VIX15.78▼ DXY101.67-0.82%
    Sentimen pasaranBimbang kemelesetan
    Nasdaq 100+0.49% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +41,150 · LF -35,992 04-25
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year, but the strength of these recent readings indicates that inflation pressures continue to run high.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  10. Mac2023
    ▲Mac’23
    Naik +25bp Hawkish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    4.75–5.00%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum▲ +25bpberbanding 1 bulan▲ +25bp

    Naik 25 bp walaupun bank seperti SVB runtuh; panduan dilembutkan kepada 'pengetatan tambahan mungkin sesuai'.

    CPI (YoY)4.9%▼PCE teras4.9%■Pengangguran3.5%▼Gaji bukan ladang+68k▼Bon 2T4.06%▼Bon 10T3.48%▼2s10s-58bp▲VIX18.70▼ DXY102.51-2.25% Median SEP5.1% ’23 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.44%NDX-1.37%
    Sentimen pasaranTekanan perbankan, elak risiko
    Nasdaq 100+9.46% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +24,320 · LF -40,894 03-28
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year, but the strength of these recent readings indicates that inflation pressures continue to run high.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  11. Feb2023
    ▲Feb’23
    Naik +25bp Hawkish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    4.50–4.75%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum▲ +25bpberbanding 1 bulan▲ +25bp

    Naik 25 bp, rentak lebih perlahan; frasa 'kenaikan berterusan' dikekalkan, Powell kata disinflasi telah bermula.

    CPI (YoY)6.0%▼PCE teras4.9%▼Pengangguran3.6%▲Gaji bukan ladang+290k▼Bon 2T4.81%▲Bon 10T3.92%▲2s10s-89bp▼VIX20.70▲ DXY104.87+2.71% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.69%NDX+2.16%
    Sentimen pasaranPerlahan tetapi masih hawkish
    Nasdaq 100-0.49% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +24,183 · LF -31,196 02-28
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “We continue to anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  12. Jan2023
    Jan’23
    Kekal Neutral Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    4.25–4.50%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Minit Disember: kenaikan diperlahankan, tetapi tiada pegawai menjangka pemotongan pada 2023.

    CPI (YoY)6.3%▼PCE teras5.0%▼Pengangguran3.5%■Gaji bukan ladang+434k▲Bon 2T4.21%▼Bon 10T3.52%▼2s10s-69bp▼VIX19.40▼ DXY102.10-1.37%
    Sentimen pasaranHarapan rentak lebih perlahan
    Nasdaq 100+10.62% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +38,031 · LF -28,329 01-31
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “In light of the cumulative tightening of monetary policy and the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, the Committee decided to raise interest rates by 50 basis points today, a step-down from the 75 basis point pace seen over the previous four meetings.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1

20222022

  1. Dis2022
    ▲Dis’22
    Naik +50bp Hawkish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    4.25–4.50%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum▲ +50bpberbanding 1 bulan▲ +50bp

    Pace slows to 50bp; dots show 5.1% for 2023

    CPI (YoY)6.4%▼PCE teras5.1%▼Pengangguran3.5%▼Gaji bukan ladang+100k▼Bon 2T4.41%▲Bon 10T3.88%▲2s10s-53bp▲VIX21.67▲ DXY103.52-2.29% Median SEP4.4% ’22 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas-0.37%NDX-0.79%
    Sentimen pasaranHawkish slowdown
    Nasdaq 100-9.06% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +9,385 · LF -15,305 12-27
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, the FOMC raised our policy interest rate by ½ percentage point.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  2. Nov2022
    ▲Nov’22
    Naik +75bp Hawkish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    3.75–4.00%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum▲ +75bpberbanding 1 bulan▲ +75bp

    Fourth 75bp hike; slower steps ahead but a higher peak rate

    CPI (YoY)7.1%▼PCE teras5.3%▼Pengangguran3.6%■Gaji bukan ladang+303k▼Bon 2T4.38%▼Bon 10T3.68%▼2s10s-70bp▼VIX20.58▼ DXY105.95-5.00% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.02%NDX-3.39%
    Sentimen pasaranHawkish downshift
    Nasdaq 100+5.48% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +15,816 · LF -30,479 11-29
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, the FOMC raised our policy interest rate by 75 basis points.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  3. Okt2022
    Okt’22
    Kekal Hawkish Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    3.00–3.25%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    UK gilt turmoil; September CPI still at 8.2%

    CPI (YoY)7.8%▼PCE teras5.5%▼Pengangguran3.6%▲Gaji bukan ladang+357k▲Bon 2T4.51%▲Bon 10T4.10%▲2s10s-41bp▼VIX25.88▼ DXY111.53-0.53%
    Sentimen pasaranHawkish, stress watch
    Nasdaq 100+3.96% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +7,481 · LF -33,264 10-25
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today the FOMC raised its policy interest rate by ¾ percentage point, and we anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  4. Sep2022
    ▲Sep’22
    Naik +75bp Hawkish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    3.00–3.25%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum▲ +75bpberbanding 1 bulan▲ +75bp

    Third 75bp hike; dots point to 4.4% by year-end

    CPI (YoY)8.2%■PCE teras5.6%▲Pengangguran3.5%▼Gaji bukan ladang+220k▼Bon 2T4.22%▲Bon 10T3.83%▲2s10s-39bp▼VIX31.62▲ DXY112.12+3.15% Median SEP4.4% ’22 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.28%NDX-1.80%
    Sentimen pasaranHawkish: higher for longer
    Nasdaq 100-10.60% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM -10,694 · LF -32,027 09-27
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today the FOMC raised its policy interest rate by ¾ percentage point, and we anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  5. Ogo2022
    Ogo’22
    Kekal Hawkish Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    2.25–2.50%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Jackson Hole: taming inflation will bring some pain; markets slide

    CPI (YoY)8.2%▼PCE teras5.4%▲Pengangguran3.6%▲Gaji bukan ladang+290k▼Bon 2T3.45%▲Bon 10T3.15%▲2s10s-30bp▼VIX25.87▲ DXY108.70+2.64%
    Sentimen pasaranHawkish: pain ahead
    Nasdaq 100-5.22% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +24,990 · LF -38,085 08-30
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  6. Jul2022
    ▲Jul’22
    Naik +75bp Hawkish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    2.25–2.50%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum▲ +75bpberbanding 1 bulan▲ +75bp

    Second straight 75bp hike; negative Q2 GDP fuels recession debate

    CPI (YoY)8.5%▼PCE teras5.2%▼Pengangguran3.5%▼Gaji bukan ladang+714k▲Bon 2T2.89%▼Bon 10T2.67%▼2s10s-22bp▼VIX21.33▼ DXY105.90+1.16% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.08%NDX+4.26%
    Sentimen pasaranHawkish, peak-rate hopes
    Nasdaq 100+12.55% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +23,359 · LF -36,790 07-26
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Against this backdrop, today the FOMC raised its policy interest rate by ¾ of a percentage point and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  7. Jun2022
    ▲Jun’22
    Naik +75bp Hawkish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    1.50–1.75%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum▲ +75bpberbanding 1 bulan▲ +75bp

    75bp hike, the largest since 1994, after May CPI hit 8.6% · Bantahan: George (preferred 50bp)

    CPI (YoY)9.0%▲PCE teras5.3%▲Pengangguran3.6%■Gaji bukan ladang+434k▲Bon 2T2.92%▲Bon 10T2.98%▲2s10s+6bp▼VIX28.71▲ DXY104.69+2.89% Median SEP3.4% ’22 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.34%NDX+2.49%
    Sentimen pasaranHawkish: 75bp shock
    Nasdaq 100-9.00% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +20,732 · LF -18,990 06-28
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Against this backdrop, today the Federal Open Market Committee raised its policy interest rate by ¾ percentage point and anticipates that ongoing increases in that rate will be appropriate.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  8. Mei2022
    ▲Mei’22
    Naik +50bp Hawkish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    0.75–1.00%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum▲ +50bpberbanding 1 bulan▲ +50bp

    50bp hike; balance-sheet runoff (QT) to start in June

    CPI (YoY)8.5%▲PCE teras5.2%▼Pengangguran3.6%▼Gaji bukan ladang+301k▼Bon 2T2.53%▼Bon 10T2.85%▼2s10s+32bp▲VIX26.19▼ DXY101.75-1.18% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas-0.10%NDX+3.41%
    Sentimen pasaranHawkish acceleration
    Nasdaq 100-1.65% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +22,204 · LF -31,867 05-31
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Against this backdrop, today the FOMC raised its policy interest rate by ½ percentage point and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target rate for the federal funds rate will be appropriate.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  9. Apr2022
    Apr’22
    Kekal Hawkish Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    0.25–0.50%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    March CPI at 8.5%; Powell says a 50bp move is on the table for May

    CPI (YoY)8.2%▼PCE teras5.3%▼Pengangguran3.7%■Gaji bukan ladang+308k▼Bon 2T2.70%▲Bon 10T2.89%▲2s10s+19bp▲VIX33.40▲ DXY102.96+4.73%
    Sentimen pasaranHawkish: 50bp flagged
    Nasdaq 100-13.37% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +22,964 · LF -11,359 04-26
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, in support of these goals, the FOMC raised its policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  10. Mac2022
    ▲Mac’22
    Naik +25bp Hawkish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    0.25–0.50%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum▲ +25bpberbanding 1 bulan▲ +25bp

    First hike in over three years, 25bp, with several more signaled for the year · Bantahan: Bullard (preferred 50bp)

    CPI (YoY)8.6%▲PCE teras5.6%■Pengangguran3.7%▼Gaji bukan ladang+490k▼Bon 2T2.28%▲Bon 10T2.32%▲2s10s+4bp▼VIX20.56▼ DXY98.31+1.65% Median SEP1.9% ’22 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas-1.06%NDX+3.70%
    Sentimen pasaranHawkish: cycle begins
    Nasdaq 100+4.22% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +25,584 · LF -54,727 03-29
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, in support of these goals, the FOMC raised its policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  11. Feb2022
    Feb’22
    Kekal Hawkish Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    0.00–0.25%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Russia invades Ukraine; January CPI hits 7.5%, a 40-year high

    CPI (YoY)7.9%▲PCE teras5.6%▲Pengangguran3.9%▼Gaji bukan ladang+819k▲Bon 2T1.44%▲Bon 10T1.83%▲2s10s+39bp▼VIX30.15▲ DXY96.71+0.18%
    Sentimen pasaranHawkish amid war risk
    Nasdaq 100-4.64% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM -2,530 · LF -1,192 02-22
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, in support of these goals, the Federal Open Market Committee kept its policy interest rate near zero and stated its expectation that an increase in this rate would soon be appropriate.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  12. Jan2022
    Jan’22
    Kekal Hawkish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    0.00–0.25%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Held; a rate increase "would soon be appropriate", March hike flagged

    CPI (YoY)7.6%▲PCE teras5.3%▲Pengangguran4.0%▲Gaji bukan ladang+190k▼Bon 2T1.18%▲Bon 10T1.79%▲2s10s+61bp▼VIX24.83▲ DXY96.54+0.91% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas-1.23%NDX+0.17%
    Sentimen pasaranHawkish signal
    Nasdaq 100-8.52% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +17,848 · LF +13,785 01-25
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, in support of these goals, the Federal Open Market Committee kept its policy interest rate near zero and stated its expectation that an increase in this rate would soon be appropriate.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2

20212021

  1. Dis2021
    Dis’21
    Kekal Hawkish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    0.00–0.25%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Taper pace doubled; dots signal three hikes in 2022

    CPI (YoY)7.2%▲PCE teras5.1%▲Pengangguran3.9%▼Gaji bukan ladang+586k▼Bon 2T0.73%▲Bon 10T1.52%▲2s10s+79bp▼VIX17.22▼ DXY95.67-0.33% Median SEP0.1% ’21 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas-0.44%NDX+2.35%
    Sentimen pasaranHawkish pivot
    Nasdaq 100+1.14% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +37,255 · LF -16,103 12-28
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, in support of these goals, the Federal Open Market Committee kept interest rates near zero and updated its assessment of the progress that the economy has made toward the criteria specified in the Committee’s forward guidance for interest rates.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  2. Nov2021
    Nov’21
    Kekal Hawkish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    0.00–0.25%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Held; tapering of asset purchases begins at $15bn a month

    CPI (YoY)6.9%▲PCE teras4.8%▲Pengangguran4.1%▼Gaji bukan ladang+658k▼Bon 2T0.52%▲Bon 10T1.43%▼2s10s+91bp▼VIX27.19▲ DXY95.99+1.99% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas-1.43%NDX+1.08%
    Sentimen pasaranHawkish first step
    Nasdaq 100+1.80% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +39,211 · LF -7,273 11-30
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, the FOMC kept interest rates near zero and, in light of the progress the economy has made toward our goals, decided to begin reducing the pace of asset purchases.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  3. Okt2021
    Okt’21
    Kekal Neutral Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    0.00–0.25%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Inflation stays above 5%; a November taper start is fully expected

    CPI (YoY)6.2%▲PCE teras4.4%▲Pengangguran4.5%▼Gaji bukan ladang+801k▲Bon 2T0.48%▲Bon 10T1.55%▲2s10s+107bp▼VIX16.26▼ DXY94.12-0.14%
    Sentimen pasaranTaper imminent
    Nasdaq 100+7.90% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +26,708 · LF -5,862 10-26
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, the Federal Open Market Committee kept interest rates near zero and maintained our current pace of asset purchases.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  4. Sep2021
    Sep’21
    Kekal Hawkish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    0.00–0.25%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Held; taper "may soon be warranted", half of officials see a 2022 hike

    CPI (YoY)5.4%▲PCE teras3.9%■Pengangguran4.7%▼Gaji bukan ladang+457k▼Bon 2T0.28%▲Bon 10T1.52%▲2s10s+124bp▲VIX23.14▲ DXY94.25+1.75% Median SEP0.1% ’21 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.03%NDX+0.99%
    Sentimen pasaranHawkish tilt
    Nasdaq 100-5.73% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +24,635 · LF -25,792 09-28
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today, the Federal Open Market Committee kept interest rates near zero and maintained our current pace of asset purchases.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  5. Ogo2021
    Ogo’21
    Kekal Neutral Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    0.00–0.25%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Jackson Hole: tapering could start this year, rate hikes a separate test

    CPI (YoY)5.2%■PCE teras3.9%▲Pengangguran5.1%▼Gaji bukan ladang+552k▼Bon 2T0.20%▲Bon 10T1.30%▲2s10s+110bp▲VIX16.48▼ DXY92.63+0.50%
    Sentimen pasaranTaper soon, hikes later
    Nasdaq 100+4.16% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +20,688 · LF -32,275 08-31
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “At the FOMC's recent July meeting, I was of the view, as were most participants, that if the economy evolved broadly as anticipated, it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  6. Jul2021
    Jul’21
    Kekal Dovish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    0.00–0.25%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Held; Fed notes progress toward taper criteria amid Delta-variant worries

    CPI (YoY)5.2%▼PCE teras3.8%■Pengangguran5.4%▼Gaji bukan ladang+942k▲Bon 2T0.19%▼Bon 10T1.24%▼2s10s+105bp▼VIX18.24▲ DXY92.17-0.29% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas-0.01%NDX+0.41%
    Sentimen pasaranDovish patience
    Nasdaq 100+2.78% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +16,019 · LF -27,978 07-27
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today the Federal Open Market Committee kept interest rates near zero and maintained our asset purchases.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  7. Jun2021
    Jun’21
    Kekal Hawkish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    0.00–0.25%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Dots now show two hikes in 2023, a more hawkish turn than expected

    CPI (YoY)5.3%▲PCE teras3.8%▲Pengangguran5.9%▲Gaji bukan ladang+755k▲Bon 2T0.25%▲Bon 10T1.45%▼2s10s+120bp▼VIX15.83▼ DXY92.44+2.68% Median SEP0.1% ’21 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas+0.27%NDX-0.34%
    Sentimen pasaranHawkish surprise
    Nasdaq 100+6.34% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +11,430 · LF -15,944 06-29
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today the Federal Open Market Committee kept interest rates near zero and maintained our asset purchases.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  8. Mei2021
    Mei’21
    Kekal Neutral Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    0.00–0.25%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    April CPI jumps to 4.2%; "transitory inflation" debate heats up

    CPI (YoY)4.9%▲PCE teras3.4%▲Pengangguran5.8%▼Gaji bukan ladang+478k▲Bon 2T0.14%▼Bon 10T1.58%▼2s10s+144bp▼VIX16.76▼ DXY90.03-1.37%
    Sentimen pasaranTransitory debate
    Nasdaq 100-1.26% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM -163 · LF -25,671 05-25
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today my colleagues on the FOMC and I kept interest rates near zero and maintained our sizable asset purchases.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 3
  9. Apr2021
    Apr’21
    Kekal Dovish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    0.00–0.25%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Held; Powell says the economy is far from goals, not yet time to discuss taper

    CPI (YoY)4.1%▲PCE teras3.1%▲Pengangguran6.1%■Gaji bukan ladang+355k▼Bon 2T0.16%■Bon 10T1.65%▼2s10s+149bp▼VIX18.61▼ DXY91.28-2.09% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas-0.28%NDX-0.42%
    Sentimen pasaranDovish patience
    Nasdaq 100+5.88% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +17,533 · LF -19,965 04-27
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today my colleagues on the FOMC and I kept interest rates near zero and maintained our sizable asset purchases.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 1
  10. Mac2021
    Mac’21
    Kekal Dovish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    0.00–0.25%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Dot-plot median shows no hike through 2023; growth outlook raised

    CPI (YoY)2.7%▲PCE teras2.1%▲Pengangguran6.1%▼Gaji bukan ladang+852k▲Bon 2T0.16%▲Bon 10T1.74%▲2s10s+158bp▲VIX19.40▼ DXY93.23+2.53% Median SEP0.1% ’21 Reaksi hari keputusanEmas-0.22%NDX+0.38%
    Sentimen pasaranDovish: no hikes signaled
    Nasdaq 100+1.41% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +9,694 · LF -38,723 03-30
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today the FOMC kept interest rates near zero and maintained our sizable asset purchases.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 3
  11. Feb2021
    Feb’21
    Kekal Dovish Tiada mesyuarat · kadar kekal
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenBiden
    0.00–0.25%
    berbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Treasury yields jump on reflation bets; Fed says it is too early to talk taper

    CPI (YoY)1.7%▲PCE teras1.6%■Pengangguran6.2%▼Gaji bukan ladang+517k▲Bon 2T0.14%▲Bon 10T1.44%▲2s10s+130bp▲VIX27.95▼ DXY90.93+0.39%
    Sentimen pasaranDovish Fed vs rising yields
    Nasdaq 100-0.12% Short digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +22,597 · LF -51,848 02-23
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today my colleagues on the FOMC and I kept interest rates near zero and maintained our sizable asset purchases.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2
  12. Jan2021
    Jan’21
    Kekal Dovish FOMC
    Pengerusi FedPowellPresidenTrump~1/20Biden1/20~
    0.00–0.25%
    berbanding keputusan sebelum■ 0bpberbanding 1 bulan■ 0bp

    Held at 0–0.25%; $120bn a month of asset purchases kept

    CPI (YoY)1.4%PCE teras1.6%Pengangguran6.4%Gaji bukan ladang+315kBon 2T0.11%Bon 10T1.11%2s10s+100bpVIX33.09 DXY90.58+0.71% Reaksi hari keputusanEmas-0.32%NDX-2.80%
    Sentimen pasaranDovish: full support
    Nasdaq 100+0.29% Long digemari
    Institusi (CFTC COT)AM +55,944 · LF -54,745 01-26
    Posisi runcitn/a

    “Today my colleagues on the FOMC and I kept interest rates near zero and maintained our sizable asset purchases.”

    Lagi · data pasaran
    Lagi · Peristiwa utama dunia 2

FAQ

Berapakah kadar Fed AS sekarang?

Menurut kenyataan FOMC terkini, julat sasaran ialah 3.75–4.00%.

Apakah paras tertinggi dan terendah 3 tahun?

Tertinggi 5.25–5.50%, terendah 0.00–0.25%.

Dari mana data diperoleh?

Kadar dan petikan dari federalreserve.gov, harga dari penutupan harian Yahoo Finance, posisi dari laporan CFTC COT. FRED (St. Louis Fed) for CPI, core PCE, unemployment, payrolls, 2Y/10Y yields and VIX.

Sejauh mana pentingnya pemotongan kadar?

Pemotongan kadar Fed menurunkan pulangan tunai dolar, lazimnya membawa dolar lebih lemah, emas (tanpa faedah) lebih kukuh, sokongan kepada saham pertumbuhan seperti Nasdaq melalui kadar diskaun lebih rendah, hasil Perbendaharaan jangka pendek menurun dan pinjaman kadar terapung lebih murah. Hasilnya bergantung pada sebab pemotongan. Mengikut data halaman ini, pada bulan pemotongan 50bp pada 18 Sep 2024, indeks dolar −0.9%, emas +5.21% dan Nasdaq 100 +2.48%, manakala hasil 2 tahun turun daripada 3.91% pada akhir Ogos kepada 3.66% pada akhir September. Pemotongan kerana kemelesetan masih boleh disertai saham lemah, jadi baca kenyataan dan plot titik bersama saiz langkah.

→ Baca lagi: Sejauh mana pentingnya penurunan kadar? (blog)

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© Foto: potret rasmi Fed dan Rumah Putih (domain awam) · Wikimedia Commons
Sumber: Federal Reserve (statements, press conferences, minutes, SEP) · FRED: CPIAUCSL, PCEPILFE, UNRATE, PAYEMS, DGS2, DGS10, T10Y2Y, VIXCLS · CFTC COT (TFF, Nasdaq Mini 209742) · Yahoo Finance daily closes (GC=F, CL=F, ^NDX, QQQ, GLD, USO, DX-Y.NYB) · Reuters, CNBC, AP, Bloomberg. Data makro = bulan rujukan (diterbitkan bulan berikutnya). Analisis, bukan nasihat pelaburan. Dikemas kini: 2026-10-15