美国联邦基金利率历史(2021–2026)

美联储主席沃什总统特朗普

9月会议纪要：官员认为年内可能再次加息，时点未定。

“In the meeting just concluded, the FOMC decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by a ¼ percentage point to 3¾ to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate.”

• FedMinutes of the FOMC, September 15-16, 2026
• CNBCFed officials see another hike coming, but no sign as to when, minutes show
• APFed officials believe another interest rate hike may be in order this year

美联储主席沃什总统特朗普

沃什在杰克逊霍尔强调对通胀保持警惕，暗示可能加息。

“Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed.”

• ReutersWarsh signals Fed may need to hike rates if above-target inflation persists
• CNBCFed Chairman Warsh warns on inflation at Jackson Hole
• APWarsh raises stakes for Fed's next meeting: takeaways from Jackson Hole

美联储主席沃什总统特朗普

中东冲突下不确定性高；能源等供给冲击使通胀居高不下。12比0全票维持。

“As you saw a few moments ago, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the fed funds rate at 3½ to 3¾ percent, in support of the Fed’s dual mandate.”

• ReutersWarsh kicks off Fed chief era with sweeping review as rates remain unchanged
• CNBCFed holds rates steady, pares down statement to remove cutting bias
• APFederal Reserve policymakers show support for rate hikes as Warsh reins in guidance

美联储主席鲍威尔总统特朗普

通胀偏高，部分源于全球能源价格上涨。维持利率；三人反对宽松倾向。 · 反对票: Miran cut; Hammack, Kashkari, Logan against easing bias

“Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged.”

• ReutersFed holds rates steady, but board vote is most divided since 1992
• CNBCFed holds rates steady but with highest level of dissent since 1992
• APPowell to remain on the Fed board after chair term ends

美联储主席鲍威尔总统特朗普

1月会议纪要：官员对政策路径存在分歧，并讨论了AI对经济的影响。

“In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy rate unchanged.”

• ReutersFed minutes show officials grappling with policy split, impact of AI on economy
• CNBCFed minutes January 2026
• FedFOMC minutes (Jan 27-28, 2026)

美联储主席鲍威尔总统特朗普

鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔表示风险平衡的变化"可能需要"调整政策。

“Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”

• FedSpeech by Chair Powell (Jackson Hole)
• CNBCPowell indicates conditions 'may warrant' interest rate cuts
• APFed's Powell signals both openness to rate cuts and caution in key speech

美联储主席鲍威尔总统特朗普

维持利率；不确定性有所下降但仍偏高。

“In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged.”

• ReutersFed keeps rates steady but pencils in two cuts by end of 2025
• CNBCFed holds key rate steady
• APFed leaves rates unchanged but still expects 2 cuts this year

美联储主席鲍威尔总统特朗普

关税公布后市场剧烈波动；3月纪要指出通胀上行、增长放缓风险。

“In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged.”

• ReutersFed minutes show broad sense US risks tilted towards higher inflation, slower growth
• APFederal Reserve could be in 'difficult' spot with higher prices, slower hiring
• FedFOMC minutes (Mar 18-19, 2025)

美联储主席鲍威尔总统特朗普

1月会议纪要：担心关税和政策变化可能推高通胀。

“In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.”

• ReutersPotential impact of Trump policies stirring inflation concerns at Fed, minutes show
• CNBCFed officials worried about tariffs' impact on inflation, minutes show
• FedFOMC minutes (Jan 28-29, 2025)

美联储主席鲍威尔总统拜登

9月会议纪要："相当多数"支持降息50个基点，但意见分歧。

“Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to reduce the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by ½ percentage point.”

• ReutersA 'substantial majority' of Fed favored large cut in Sept, minutes show
• CNBCFed officials were divided on whether to cut by half a point, minutes show
• FedFOMC minutes (Sep 17-18, 2024)

美联储主席鲍威尔总统拜登

鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔表示"政策调整的时机已到"，暗示9月降息。

“The time has come for policy to adjust.”

• FedSpeech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook (Jackson Hole)
• CNBCPowell: 'The time has come for policy to adjust'
• ReutersKey quotes from Powell's speech at Fed's Jackson Hole conference
• APWall Street rallies as 'time has come' for cuts to rates

美联储主席鲍威尔总统拜登

通胀取得"进一步小幅进展"。维持利率。

“Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.”

• ReutersFed holds rates, projects fewer cuts in 2024
• APFederal Reserve envisions just one rate cut this year
• CNBCCNBC Daily Open: Fed signals just one rate cut

美联储主席鲍威尔总统拜登

3月纪要和顽固的通胀数据削弱了对通胀回落的信心。

“Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.”

• ReutersFed's 'confidence' in disinflation not bolstered by recent data, minutes show
• CNBCFed wants more confidence that inflation is moving toward 2% target, minutes indicate
• APFederal Reserve minutes: Some officials highlighted worsening inflation

美联储主席鲍威尔总统拜登

1月会议纪要：官员警惕过早降息；3月降息押注消退。

“Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.”

• ReutersFed worried about cutting rates too soon, minutes of January meeting show
• CNBCDollar edges down as Fed meeting minutes meet expectations
• APFederal Reserve officials caution against cutting US interest rates too soon or too much

美联储主席鲍威尔总统拜登

增长放缓；通胀回落但仍偏高。维持利率，预测显示2024年降息。

“We’ve raised our policy interest rate by 5¼ percentage points and have continued to reduce our securities holdings at a brisk pace.”

• ReutersWith rate hikes likely done, Fed turns to timing of cuts
• CNBCFed holds rates steady, indicates 3 cuts coming in 2024
• APFederal Reserve minutes: Officials saw inflation cooling but were cautious about timing of rate cuts

美联储主席鲍威尔总统拜登

9月会议纪要公布；长期收益率飙升，美联储对进一步加息转向"观望"。

“The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.”

• FedFOMC minutes (Sep 19-20, 2023)
• CNBCFed minutes October 2023
• ReutersFed's Waller: Fed can 'watch and see' if further hikes needed

美联储主席鲍威尔总统拜登

鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔表示"准备在适当时进一步加息"；10年期收益率升至2007年以来高位。

“We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.”

• FedSpeech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook (Jackson Hole)
• CNBCFed Chair Powell calls inflation 'too high' and warns that 'we are prepared to raise rates further'
• APEconomy's solid growth could require more Fed hikes to fight inflation, Powell says at Jackson Hole
• ReutersFed's Powell: higher rates may be needed, will move 'carefully'

美联储主席鲍威尔总统拜登

连续10次加息后首次暂停；点阵图暗示年内再加息两次。

“Looking ahead, nearly all Committee participants view it as likely that some further rate increases will be appropriate this year to bring inflation down to 2 percent over time.”

• CNBCFed pauses rate hikes, sees two more ahead this year
• APFed Chair Powell sees progress on inflation, though not quickly enough
• FedFOMC statement

美联储主席鲍威尔总统拜登

3月会议纪要：美联储工作人员预计银行风波后年内出现"温和衰退"。

“Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year, but the strength of these recent readings indicates that inflation pressures continue to run high.”

• APBank turmoil led Fed officials to forecast fewer rate hikes
• ReutersSeveral Fed officials considered rate pause in March, minutes show
• CNBCFed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show

美联储主席鲍威尔总统拜登

UK gilt turmoil; September CPI still at 8.2%

“Today the FOMC raised its policy interest rate by ¾ percentage point, and we anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate.”

• FedFOMC statement, September 21, 2022
• FedMinutes of the FOMC, September 21, 2022
• FedPress conference transcript, September 21, 2022

美联储主席鲍威尔总统拜登

Jackson Hole: taming inflation will bring some pain; markets slide

“Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth.”

• FedPowell, Jackson Hole remarks
• FedFOMC statement, July 27, 2022
• FedMinutes of the FOMC, July 27, 2022
• FedPress conference transcript, July 27, 2022

美联储主席鲍威尔总统拜登

March CPI at 8.5%; Powell says a 50bp move is on the table for May

“Today, in support of these goals, the FOMC raised its policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point.”

• FedFOMC statement, March 16, 2022
• FedMinutes of the FOMC, March 16, 2022
• FedPress conference transcript, March 16, 2022

美联储主席鲍威尔总统拜登

Russia invades Ukraine; January CPI hits 7.5%, a 40-year high