Lịch sử lãi suất Fed(2021–2026)

Chủ tịch FedWarshTổng thốngTrump

Biên bản tháng 9: các quan chức cho rằng có thể tăng thêm trong năm nay, thời điểm chưa rõ.

“In the meeting just concluded, the FOMC decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by a ¼ percentage point to 3¾ to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate.”

• FedMinutes of the FOMC, September 15-16, 2026
• CNBCFed officials see another hike coming, but no sign as to when, minutes show
• APFed officials believe another interest rate hike may be in order this year

Chủ tịch FedWarshTổng thốngTrump

Tại Jackson Hole, Warsh nhấn mạnh cảnh giác lạm phát, báo hiệu có thể tăng lãi suất.

“Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed.”

• ReutersWarsh signals Fed may need to hike rates if above-target inflation persists
• CNBCFed Chairman Warsh warns on inflation at Jackson Hole
• APWarsh raises stakes for Fed's next meeting: takeaways from Jackson Hole

Chủ tịch FedWarshTổng thốngTrump

Bất định cao do xung đột Trung Đông; cú sốc cung gồm năng lượng giữ lạm phát cao. Nhất trí giữ nguyên 12-0.

“As you saw a few moments ago, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the fed funds rate at 3½ to 3¾ percent, in support of the Fed’s dual mandate.”

• ReutersWarsh kicks off Fed chief era with sweeping review as rates remain unchanged
• CNBCFed holds rates steady, pares down statement to remove cutting bias
• APFederal Reserve policymakers show support for rate hikes as Warsh reins in guidance

Chủ tịch FedPowellTổng thốngTrump

Lạm phát cao, một phần do giá năng lượng toàn cầu. Giữ nguyên; ba người phản đối xu hướng nới lỏng. · Phản đối: Miran cut; Hammack, Kashkari, Logan against easing bias

“Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged.”

• ReutersFed holds rates steady, but board vote is most divided since 1992
• CNBCFed holds rates steady but with highest level of dissent since 1992
• APPowell to remain on the Fed board after chair term ends

Chủ tịch FedPowellTổng thốngTrump

Biên bản tháng 1: quan chức chia rẽ về lộ trình chính sách, thảo luận tác động của AI.

“In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy rate unchanged.”

• ReutersFed minutes show officials grappling with policy split, impact of AI on economy
• CNBCFed minutes January 2026
• FedFOMC minutes (Jan 27-28, 2026)

Chủ tịch FedPowellTổng thốngTrump

Tại Jackson Hole, Powell nói cán cân rủi ro thay đổi "có thể đòi hỏi" điều chỉnh chính sách.

“Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”

• FedSpeech by Chair Powell (Jackson Hole)
• CNBCPowell indicates conditions 'may warrant' interest rate cuts
• APFed's Powell signals both openness to rate cuts and caution in key speech

Chủ tịch FedPowellTổng thốngTrump

Giữ nguyên; bất định đã giảm nhưng vẫn cao.

“In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged.”

• ReutersFed keeps rates steady but pencils in two cuts by end of 2025
• CNBCFed holds key rate steady
• APFed leaves rates unchanged but still expects 2 cuts this year

Chủ tịch FedPowellTổng thốngTrump

Thị trường biến động sau công bố thuế quan; biên bản tháng 3 cảnh báo rủi ro lạm phát cao, tăng trưởng chậm.

“In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged.”

• ReutersFed minutes show broad sense US risks tilted towards higher inflation, slower growth
• APFederal Reserve could be in 'difficult' spot with higher prices, slower hiring
• FedFOMC minutes (Mar 18-19, 2025)

Chủ tịch FedPowellTổng thốngTrump

Biên bản tháng 1: lo ngại thuế quan và thay đổi chính sách có thể đẩy lạm phát.

“In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.”

• ReutersPotential impact of Trump policies stirring inflation concerns at Fed, minutes show
• CNBCFed officials worried about tariffs' impact on inflation, minutes show
• FedFOMC minutes (Jan 28-29, 2025)

Chủ tịch FedPowellTổng thốngBiden

Biên bản tháng 9: "đa số đáng kể" ủng hộ cắt 50 bp, dù ý kiến chia rẽ.

“Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to reduce the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by ½ percentage point.”

• ReutersA 'substantial majority' of Fed favored large cut in Sept, minutes show
• CNBCFed officials were divided on whether to cut by half a point, minutes show
• FedFOMC minutes (Sep 17-18, 2024)

Chủ tịch FedPowellTổng thốngBiden

Tại Jackson Hole, Powell nói "đã đến lúc điều chỉnh chính sách", báo hiệu cắt tháng 9.

“The time has come for policy to adjust.”

• FedSpeech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook (Jackson Hole)
• CNBCPowell: 'The time has come for policy to adjust'
• ReutersKey quotes from Powell's speech at Fed's Jackson Hole conference
• APWall Street rallies as 'time has come' for cuts to rates

Chủ tịch FedPowellTổng thốngBiden

Lạm phát có "thêm tiến triển khiêm tốn". Giữ nguyên.

“Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.”

• ReutersFed holds rates, projects fewer cuts in 2024
• APFederal Reserve envisions just one rate cut this year
• CNBCCNBC Daily Open: Fed signals just one rate cut

Chủ tịch FedPowellTổng thốngBiden

Biên bản tháng 3 và lạm phát dai dẳng làm giảm niềm tin vào giảm phát.

“Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.”

• ReutersFed's 'confidence' in disinflation not bolstered by recent data, minutes show
• CNBCFed wants more confidence that inflation is moving toward 2% target, minutes indicate
• APFederal Reserve minutes: Some officials highlighted worsening inflation

Chủ tịch FedPowellTổng thốngBiden

Biên bản tháng 1: quan chức e ngại cắt quá sớm; kỳ vọng cắt tháng 3 phai nhạt.

“Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.”

• ReutersFed worried about cutting rates too soon, minutes of January meeting show
• CNBCDollar edges down as Fed meeting minutes meet expectations
• APFederal Reserve officials caution against cutting US interest rates too soon or too much

Chủ tịch FedPowellTổng thốngBiden

Tăng trưởng chậm lại; lạm phát giảm nhưng còn cao. Giữ nguyên, dự báo cho thấy cắt năm 2024.

“We’ve raised our policy interest rate by 5¼ percentage points and have continued to reduce our securities holdings at a brisk pace.”

• ReutersWith rate hikes likely done, Fed turns to timing of cuts
• CNBCFed holds rates steady, indicates 3 cuts coming in 2024
• APFederal Reserve minutes: Officials saw inflation cooling but were cautious about timing of rate cuts

Chủ tịch FedPowellTổng thốngBiden

Công bố biên bản tháng 9; lợi suất dài hạn tăng vọt, Fed chuyển sang "chờ xem" việc tăng thêm.

“The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.”

• FedFOMC minutes (Sep 19-20, 2023)
• CNBCFed minutes October 2023
• ReutersFed's Waller: Fed can 'watch and see' if further hikes needed

Chủ tịch FedPowellTổng thốngBiden

Tại Jackson Hole, Powell nói Fed "sẵn sàng tăng thêm nếu phù hợp"; lợi suất 10 năm cao nhất kể từ 2007.

“We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.”

• FedSpeech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook (Jackson Hole)
• CNBCFed Chair Powell calls inflation 'too high' and warns that 'we are prepared to raise rates further'
• APEconomy's solid growth could require more Fed hikes to fight inflation, Powell says at Jackson Hole
• ReutersFed's Powell: higher rates may be needed, will move 'carefully'

Chủ tịch FedPowellTổng thốngBiden

Lần giữ nguyên đầu tiên sau 10 lần tăng; biểu đồ chấm báo hiệu thêm hai lần tăng trong năm.

“Looking ahead, nearly all Committee participants view it as likely that some further rate increases will be appropriate this year to bring inflation down to 2 percent over time.”

• CNBCFed pauses rate hikes, sees two more ahead this year
• APFed Chair Powell sees progress on inflation, though not quickly enough
• FedFOMC statement

Chủ tịch FedPowellTổng thốngBiden

Biên bản tháng 3: nhân viên Fed dự báo "suy thoái nhẹ" cuối năm sau biến động ngân hàng.

“Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year, but the strength of these recent readings indicates that inflation pressures continue to run high.”

• APBank turmoil led Fed officials to forecast fewer rate hikes
• ReutersSeveral Fed officials considered rate pause in March, minutes show
• CNBCFed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show

Chủ tịch FedPowellTổng thốngBiden

UK gilt turmoil; September CPI still at 8.2%

“Today the FOMC raised its policy interest rate by ¾ percentage point, and we anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate.”

• FedFOMC statement, September 21, 2022
• FedMinutes of the FOMC, September 21, 2022
• FedPress conference transcript, September 21, 2022

Chủ tịch FedPowellTổng thốngBiden

Jackson Hole: taming inflation will bring some pain; markets slide

“Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth.”

• FedPowell, Jackson Hole remarks
• FedFOMC statement, July 27, 2022
• FedMinutes of the FOMC, July 27, 2022
• FedPress conference transcript, July 27, 2022

Chủ tịch FedPowellTổng thốngBiden

March CPI at 8.5%; Powell says a 50bp move is on the table for May

“Today, in support of these goals, the FOMC raised its policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point.”

• FedFOMC statement, March 16, 2022
• FedMinutes of the FOMC, March 16, 2022
• FedPress conference transcript, March 16, 2022

Chủ tịch FedPowellTổng thốngBiden

Russia invades Ukraine; January CPI hits 7.5%, a 40-year high