Fed Chair Quote Timeline(2021–2026)

Kevin Warsh’s key remarks, Trump’s reaction at each moment, and what markets and the world were doing. Every quote links to its source.

Hawk–dove meterCurrent lean: hawkish

🕊 DoveNeutralHawk 🦅

🎙️ Key Figures · Latest Remarks Last updated: 10.19 21:20 KST

ECB President

Christine LagardeECB President2026.10.14Reuters via Euronext ↗

“We cannot wait until they're there in full view, but we can anticipate.”

The Warsh era2026.05 –
202609.16
FOMC press conference · +25 bp to 3.75–4.00%

Fed funds3.75–4.00% Gold-6.58%NDX+3.23%WTI+5.43% Hawk▲ +25bp

“I would be hard-pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.”

Kevin Warsh · The Hill

“Interest Rates in the United States should be 1%, or less, because we are the Best Credit in the World — BY FAR. … LOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND FAST!”

Donald Trump · American Presidency Project · CNBC

Why it was said
When Warsh said this, the latest data (August 2026) showed CPI inflation at 3.4% year on year, core PCE at 3.0% and unemployment at 4.1%, with employers adding 133k jobs. The policy rate stood at 3.75–4.00%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 4.34%, markets seemed to expect more rate hikes. The FOMC raised rates by 25 bp to 3.75–4.00% that day, and these words were part of the explanation. Kevin Warsh had been sworn in as Fed Chair on May 22, 2026, and investors were testing how far he would go along with the White House’s push for cheaper money. Afterwards gold moved +1.26% on the day and −0.33% over the following week, while the dollar index moved +0.66% and +1.46%. The next rate decision had not yet been made when this page was last updated.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2026-09-16 Federal Reserve Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)

FOMC minutes: All members agreed to raise the range 25bp to 3.75–4.00%, judging it would support a timelier return of inflation to 2%. federalreserve.gov
More · The world at the time 2
- 26-09-15US 10-year yield breaks 5%
  A global bond sell-off pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, its highest since 2007. Worries about war-driven inflation and heavy government borrowing drove the move.
  Reuters
- 26-08-30Himalayan floods devastate Nepal
  Catastrophic floods and debris flows in Nepal's Himalayas killed hundreds, with the toll later passing 1,400. Hydropower tunnels and remote villages were cut off.
  Reuters
202608.28
Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium

Fed funds3.50–3.75% Gold+9.12%NDX+4.18%WTI+1.29% HawkNext rate move2026.09 +25bp

“None of these measures are perfect, but they all tell a similar story: Inflation is running above our 2 percent target.”

Kevin Warsh · CNBC

“He’ll do what he has to do.”

Donald Trump · WSJ (Aug 31) · Daily Signal

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Warsh (July 2026) showed CPI inflation at 3.3% year on year, core PCE at 3.0% and unemployment at 4.1%, with payrolls down 10k. With the policy rate at 3.50–3.75% and the 2-year yield near 4.28%, the bond market looked to be pricing in more rate hikes. It came 19 days before the FOMC meeting of September 16, 2026, at which the Fed raised rates by 25 bp to 3.75–4.00%. Kevin Warsh had been sworn in as Fed Chair on May 22, 2026, and investors were testing how far he would go along with the White House’s push for cheaper money. By the end of August 2026, gold was +9.12% on the month and the Nasdaq 100 +4.18%. The next rate decision had not yet been made when this page was last updated.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2026-09-16 Federal Reserve Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 26-09-15US 10-year yield breaks 5%
  A global bond sell-off pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, its highest since 2007. Worries about war-driven inflation and heavy government borrowing drove the move.
  Reuters
- 26-08-30Himalayan floods devastate Nepal
  Catastrophic floods and debris flows in Nepal's Himalayas killed hundreds, with the toll later passing 1,400. Hydropower tunnels and remote villages were cut off.
  Reuters
202607.29
FOMC press conference · held 9–3 (three wanted a hike)

Fed funds3.50–3.75% Gold+1.70%NDX-6.61%WTI+21.83% Hawk■ 0bpNext rate move2026.09 +25bp

“This is a period of watchful thinking, not watchful waiting.”

Kevin Warsh · CNN · Fed transcript

No sourced public reaction for this moment.

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (June 2026) put CPI inflation at 3.5% year on year, core PCE at 3.0% and unemployment at 4.2%, with employers adding 31k jobs. The policy rate stood at 3.50–3.75%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 4.14%, markets seemed to expect more rate hikes. At this meeting the FOMC held rates at 3.50–3.75%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. Kevin Warsh had been sworn in as Fed Chair on May 22, 2026, and investors were testing how far he would go along with the White House’s push for cheaper money. Afterwards gold moved −0.06% on the day and +6.6% over the following week, while the dollar index moved −0.57% and −1.67%. At the next meeting on September 16, 2026 the Fed raised rates by 25 bp to 3.75–4.00%, and CPI inflation for September 2026 came in at 3.7%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2026-07-29 Federal Reserve Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)

FOMC minutes: Nine members voted to hold at 3.50–3.75%; three dissented in favor of a 25bp hike. "Will deliver price stability" was retained. federalreserve.gov
More · The world at the time 1
- 26-07-08Iran ship attacks resume; MOU collapses
  Iran resumed attacks on tankers in Hormuz, and the US reinstated oil sanctions and launched new strikes. The June memorandum collapsed amid disputes over control of shipping routes.
  Reuters
202606.17
First FOMC press conference as Chair · held at 3.50–3.75%

Fed funds3.50–3.75% Gold-12.07%NDX-0.19%WTI-20.44% Hawk■ 0bpNext rate move2026.09 +25bp

“The commitment to deliver is strong, unanimous, and unambiguous, and that’s I think an important message we’ve missed for five years, and we’re going to fix that.”

Kevin Warsh · Fed transcript · CNBC

“It’s all right. Whatever.”

Donald Trump · Reuters

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Warsh (May 2026) showed CPI inflation at 4.2% year on year, core PCE at 3.2% and unemployment at 4.3%, with employers adding 63k jobs. With the policy rate at 3.50–3.75% and the 2-year yield near 3.98%, the bond market looked to be pricing in little change in the near term. At this meeting the FOMC held rates at 3.50–3.75%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. Kevin Warsh had been sworn in as Fed Chair on May 22, 2026, and investors were testing how far he would go along with the White House’s push for cheaper money. Gold's reaction: +0.62% that day and −7.05% a week later; the dollar index went +0.55% and +1.9%. At the next meeting on July 29, 2026 the Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75%, and CPI inflation for September 2026 came in at 3.7%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2026-06-17 Federal Reserve Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)

FOMC minutes: All members held at 3.50–3.75% and dropped the easing-bias language; the statement stressed the Fed "will deliver price stability." federalreserve.gov
More · The world at the time 2
- 26-07-08Iran ship attacks resume; MOU collapses
  Iran resumed attacks on tankers in Hormuz, and the US reinstated oil sanctions and launched new strikes. The June memorandum collapsed amid disputes over control of shipping routes.
  Reuters
- 26-06-17US–Iran MOU: 60-day safe passage
  The US and Iran signed a memorandum setting a 60-day window to negotiate a final deal. Iran agreed to free, safe passage for commercial ships through Hormuz during that period.
  Reuters Congress.gov
202605.22
Sworn in as Fed Chair

Fed funds3.50–3.75% Gold-0.79%NDX+10.49%WTI-16.86% NeutralNext rate move2026.09 +25bp

Kevin Warsh takes the oath of office as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve

Why it was said
When Warsh took office, the latest data (April 2026) showed CPI inflation at 3.8% year on year, core PCE at 3.1% and unemployment at 4.3%, with employers adding 148k jobs. The policy rate stood at 3.50–3.75%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 3.88%, markets seemed to expect little change in the near term. It came 23 days after the FOMC meeting of April 29, 2026, at which the Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75%. Kevin Warsh had been sworn in as Fed Chair on May 22, 2026, and investors were testing how far he would go along with the White House’s push for cheaper money. Over May 2026 as a whole, gold finished −0.79% and the Nasdaq 100 +10.49%. At the next meeting on June 17, 2026 the Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75%, and CPI inflation for August 2026 came in at 3.4%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2026-04-29 Federal Reserve Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 26-05-14Trump visits Beijing for a summit with Xi
  Trump held a two-day summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing, delayed earlier by the Iran war. Both sides called it a success, but differences remained over Iran and Taiwan.
  Reuters
- 26-05-01UAE leaves OPEC
  The UAE's exit from OPEC and OPEC+ took effect, ending nearly 60 years of membership. Free of quotas, Abu Dhabi aimed to pump more oil, weakening the group's control over supply.
  Reuters WAM
The Trump-pressure era2025.01 – 2026.05
202604.29
FOMC press conference · held at 3.50–3.75%

Fed funds3.50–3.75% Gold-0.39%NDX+15.64%WTI+3.64% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2026.09 +25bp

“At today’s meeting, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3½ to 3¾ percent.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
When Powell said this, the latest data (March 2026) showed CPI inflation at 3.3% year on year, core PCE at 3.1% and unemployment at 4.3%, with employers adding 214k jobs. The policy rate stood at 3.50–3.75%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 3.79%, markets seemed to expect little change in the near term. The FOMC held rates at 3.50–3.75% that day, and these words were part of the explanation. Trump named Kevin Warsh as his pick for Fed Chair on January 30, 2026, so markets were weighing a leadership change as Powell’s term wound down. Afterwards gold moved −1.02% on the day and +1.86% over the following week, while the dollar index moved +0.3% and −0.61%. Next came the June 17, 2026 meeting, where the Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75%; CPI inflation for July 2026 later printed 3.3%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2026-04-29 CNN Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 3
- 26-05-14Trump visits Beijing for a summit with Xi
  Trump held a two-day summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing, delayed earlier by the Iran war. Both sides called it a success, but differences remained over Iran and Taiwan.
  Reuters
- 26-05-01UAE leaves OPEC
  The UAE's exit from OPEC and OPEC+ took effect, ending nearly 60 years of membership. Free of quotas, Abu Dhabi aimed to pump more oil, weakening the group's control over supply.
  Reuters WAM
- 26-04-13US Navy blockades Iranian ports (to May 29)
  After talks failed, the US Navy began blockading Iran's ports in the Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Neutral shipping through Hormuz to other countries was allowed.
  Reuters
202604.21
Senate Banking Committee nomination hearing

Fed funds3.50–3.75% Gold-0.39%NDX+15.64%WTI+3.64% HawkNext rate move2026.09 +25bp

“Monetary policy independence is essential.”

Kevin Warsh · Senate Banking (testimony)

No sourced public reaction for this moment.

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (March 2026) put CPI inflation at 3.3% year on year, core PCE at 3.1% and unemployment at 4.3%, with employers adding 214k jobs. The policy rate stood at 3.50–3.75%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 3.79%, markets seemed to expect little change in the near term. It came 8 days before the FOMC meeting of April 29, 2026, at which the Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75%. Trump named Kevin Warsh as his pick for Fed Chair on January 30, 2026, so markets were weighing a leadership change as Powell’s term wound down. Over April 2026 as a whole, gold finished −0.39% and the Nasdaq 100 +15.64%. At the next meeting on June 17, 2026 the Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75%, and CPI inflation for July 2026 came in at 3.3%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2026-04-29 CNN Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 3
- 26-05-01UAE leaves OPEC
  The UAE's exit from OPEC and OPEC+ took effect, ending nearly 60 years of membership. Free of quotas, Abu Dhabi aimed to pump more oil, weakening the group's control over supply.
  Reuters WAM
- 26-04-13US Navy blockades Iranian ports (to May 29)
  After talks failed, the US Navy began blockading Iran's ports in the Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Neutral shipping through Hormuz to other countries was allowed.
  Reuters
- 26-04-07First US–Iran ceasefire
  The US and Iran agreed a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. Iran was to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the US suspended bombing.
  AP
202603.18
FOMC press conference · held at 3.50–3.75%

Fed funds3.50–3.75% Gold-11.44%NDX-4.89%WTI+51.27% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2026.09 +25bp

“It should come as we start to see in the middle of the year progress on tariffs going through once and then tariff inflation coming down.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
When Powell said this, the latest data (February 2026) showed CPI inflation at 2.4% year on year, core PCE at 3.0% and unemployment at 4.4%, with payrolls down 156k. The policy rate stood at 3.50–3.75%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 3.38%, markets seemed to expect little change in the near term. The FOMC held rates at 3.50–3.75% that day, and these words were part of the explanation. Trump named Kevin Warsh as his pick for Fed Chair on January 30, 2026, so markets were weighing a leadership change as Powell’s term wound down. Afterwards gold moved −2.24% on the day and −9.1% over the following week, while the dollar index moved +0.51% and +0.02%. Next came the April 29, 2026 meeting, where the Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75%; CPI inflation for June 2026 later printed 3.5%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2026-03-18 CNN Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 3
- 26-04-07First US–Iran ceasefire
  The US and Iran agreed a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. Iran was to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the US suspended bombing.
  AP
- 26-03-12Iran keeps Hormuz shut; Brent tops $100
  Iran's new supreme leader vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, choking global oil and gas flows. Brent crude settled above $100 a barrel, up 9% in a day.
  Reuters Congress.gov
- 26-02-28US–Israel strikes on Iran; Iran war begins
  The US and Israel launched large-scale strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran fired missiles at Israel and Gulf states hosting US forces.
  Reuters
202601.30
Trump announces Warsh as his pick for Fed Chair (formal nomination Mar 4, 2026)

Fed funds3.50–3.75% Gold+9.31%NDX+1.20%WTI+13.57% NeutralNext rate move2026.09 +25bp

“I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best.”

Donald Trump · Truth Social (archive) · CNN

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Trump (December 2025) showed CPI inflation at 2.7% year on year, core PCE at 2.9% and unemployment at 4.4%, with payrolls down 17k. With the policy rate at 3.50–3.75% and the 2-year yield near 3.47%, the bond market looked to be pricing in little change in the near term. It came 2 days after the FOMC meeting of January 28, 2026, at which the Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75%. Trump named Kevin Warsh as his pick for Fed Chair on January 30, 2026, so markets were weighing a leadership change as Powell’s term wound down. By the end of January 2026, gold was +9.31% on the month and the Nasdaq 100 +1.2%. At the next meeting on March 18, 2026 the Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75%, and CPI inflation for April 2026 came in at 3.8%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2026-01-28 CNN Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 1
- 26-02-20Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs
  The Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that the emergency-powers law IEEPA does not allow the president to impose tariffs. The ruling voided the fentanyl and 'reciprocal' tariffs, though other tariff laws remained available.
  Supreme Court Congress.gov
202601.28
FOMC press conference · held at 3.50–3.75%

Fed funds3.50–3.75% Gold+9.31%NDX+1.20%WTI+13.57% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2026.09 +25bp

“In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy rate unchanged.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
When Powell said this, the latest data (December 2025) showed CPI inflation at 2.7% year on year, core PCE at 2.9% and unemployment at 4.4%, with payrolls down 17k. The policy rate stood at 3.50–3.75%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 3.47%, markets seemed to expect little change in the near term. The FOMC held rates at 3.50–3.75% that day, and these words were part of the explanation. Trump was openly attacking Powell, writing on April 17, 2025 that his “termination cannot come fast enough,” which put Fed independence in the spotlight. Afterwards gold moved +4.35% on the day and −2.59% over the following week, while the dollar index moved +0.24% and +1.46%. Next came the March 18, 2026 meeting, where the Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75%; CPI inflation for April 2026 later printed 3.8%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2026-01-28 Reuters Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 1
- 26-01-08Iran's deadly crackdown on nationwide protests
  Iranian security forces crushed nationwide protests, killing thousands according to rights groups. Tens of thousands were arrested in the following weeks.
  AP
202512.10
FOMC press conference · −25 bp to 3.50–3.75%

Fed funds3.50–3.75% Gold+2.03%NDX-0.73%WTI-1.93% Dove▼ −25bpNext rate move2026.09 +25bp

“And as we noted in our statement today, we are well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Powell (November 2025) showed CPI inflation at 2.7% year on year, core PCE at 2.7% and unemployment at 4.5%, with employers adding 41k jobs. With the policy rate at 3.50–3.75% and the 2-year yield near 3.47%, the bond market looked to be pricing in little change in the near term. At this meeting the FOMC cut rates by 25 bp to 3.50–3.75%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. Trump was openly attacking Powell, writing on April 17, 2025 that his “termination cannot come fast enough,” which put Fed independence in the spotlight. Gold's reaction: −0.27% that day and +3.25% a week later; the dollar index went −0.43% and −0.86%. At the next meeting on January 28, 2026 the Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75%, and CPI inflation for March 2026 came in at 3.3%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2025-12-10 Reuters Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 1
- 25-12-19Bank of Japan lifts rates to a 30-year high
  The BOJ raised its policy rate to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, and signalled more hikes. Major central banks were turning away from rate cuts.
  BOJ Reuters
202510.29
FOMC press conference · −25 bp to 3.75–4.00%

Fed funds3.75–4.00% Gold+3.18%NDX+4.77%WTI-2.23% Dove▼ −25bpNext rate move2025.12 −25bp

“And at a time when we have tension between our two goals, we have strong views across the Committee.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (September 2025) put CPI inflation at 3.0% year on year, core PCE at 2.8% and unemployment at 4.4%, with employers adding 76k jobs. The policy rate stood at 3.75–4.00%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 3.6%, markets seemed to expect little change in the near term. At this meeting the FOMC cut rates by 25 bp to 3.75–4.00%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. Trump was openly attacking Powell, writing on April 17, 2025 that his “termination cannot come fast enough,” which put Fed independence in the spotlight. Afterwards gold moved +0.44% on the day and +0.25% over the following week, while the dollar index moved +0.54% and +1.53%. At the next meeting on December 10, 2025 the Fed cut rates by 25 bp to 3.50–3.75%, and CPI inflation for January 2026 came in at 2.4%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2025-10-29 Reuters Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 3
- 25-11-12Shutdown ends
  Trump signed a funding bill ending the longest shutdown in US history after 43 days. It funded the government until 30 January 2026.
  AP
- 25-10-30Trump–Xi meeting eases tariffs
  At a meeting in Busan, Trump cut fentanyl-related tariffs on China to 10% and China paused new rare-earth export controls. Beijing also agreed to resume US soybean purchases under a one-year truce.
  Reuters
- 25-10-10Gaza ceasefire takes effect
  A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas took effect and Israeli troops pulled back from parts of Gaza. Hostages and prisoners were exchanged in the following days.
  Reuters
202509.17
FOMC press conference · −25 bp to 4.00–4.25%

Fed funds4.00–4.25% Gold+10.16%NDX+5.40%WTI-2.56% Dove▼ −25bpNext rate move2025.10 −25bp

“What we can say is this: that over the course of this year, we’ve kept our policy at a restrictive level—and people have different views, but a clearly restrictive level, I would say.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Powell (August 2025) showed CPI inflation at 2.9% year on year, core PCE at 2.9% and unemployment at 4.3%, with payrolls down 70k. With the policy rate at 4.00–4.25% and the 2-year yield near 3.59%, the bond market looked to be pricing in rate cuts ahead. At this meeting the FOMC cut rates by 25 bp to 4.00–4.25%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. Trump was openly attacking Powell, writing on April 17, 2025 that his “termination cannot come fast enough,” which put Fed independence in the spotlight. Gold's reaction: −0.2% that day and +1.15% a week later; the dollar index went +0.25% and +1.28%. At the next meeting on October 29, 2025 the Fed cut rates by 25 bp to 3.75–4.00%, and CPI inflation for December 2025 came in at 2.7%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2025-09-17 Reuters Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 3
- 25-10-01US government shutdown, record 43 days
  Funding lapsed after Congress deadlocked over health-care subsidies, furloughing about 750,000 federal workers. Many official data releases were delayed.
  AP
- 25-09-09Gen Z protests topple Nepal's government
  Youth-led anti-corruption protests, sparked by a social-media ban, forced Nepal's Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli to resign. About 72 people died in the unrest.
  Reuters
- 25-09-02Gold breaks above $3,500
  Gold hit a record above $3,500 an ounce on bets of US rate cuts and safe-haven demand. It kept setting records through September.
  Reuters
202508.22
Jackson Hole speech

Fed funds4.25–4.50% Gold+6.77%NDX+0.85%WTI-7.58% DoveNext rate move2025.09 −25bp

“This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising.”

Jerome Powell · Federal Reserve

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (July 2025) put CPI inflation at 2.7% year on year, core PCE at 2.8% and unemployment at 4.3%, with employers adding 64k jobs. The policy rate stood at 4.25–4.50%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 3.94%, markets seemed to expect rate cuts ahead. It came 23 days after the FOMC meeting of July 30, 2025, at which the Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50%. Trump was openly attacking Powell, writing on April 17, 2025 that his “termination cannot come fast enough,” which put Fed independence in the spotlight. Over August 2025 as a whole, gold finished +6.77% and the Nasdaq 100 +0.85%. At the next meeting on September 17, 2025 the Fed cut rates by 25 bp to 4.00–4.25%, and CPI inflation for November 2025 came in at 2.7%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2025-07-30 Reuters Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 4
- 25-09-09Gen Z protests topple Nepal's government
  Youth-led anti-corruption protests, sparked by a social-media ban, forced Nepal's Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli to resign. About 72 people died in the unrest.
  Reuters
- 25-09-02Gold breaks above $3,500
  Gold hit a record above $3,500 an ounce on bets of US rate cuts and safe-haven demand. It kept setting records through September.
  Reuters
- 25-08-07Higher US 'reciprocal' tariffs take effect
  New US tariff rates of 10% to 50% took effect for dozens of countries, with Brazil, India and Switzerland facing some of the highest. The US expected about $50 billion a month in tariff revenue.
  Reuters
- 25-08-01Trump fires the US labor statistics chief
  After weak jobs data and large downward revisions, Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, accusing her without evidence of rigging numbers. Economists warned about the credibility of US data.
  Reuters
202507.30
FOMC press conference · held at 4.25–4.50%

Fed funds4.25–4.50% Gold-0.44%NDX+2.38%WTI+6.37% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2025.09 −25bp

“So, as you know, today we decided to leave our policy rate where it’s been, which—where I would characterize as modestly restrictive.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
When Powell said this, the latest data (June 2025) showed CPI inflation at 2.7% year on year, core PCE at 2.8% and unemployment at 4.1%, with payrolls down 20k. The policy rate stood at 4.25–4.50%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 3.72%, markets seemed to expect rate cuts ahead. The FOMC held rates at 4.25–4.50% that day, and these words were part of the explanation. Trump was openly attacking Powell, writing on April 17, 2025 that his “termination cannot come fast enough,” which put Fed independence in the spotlight. Afterwards gold moved −0.85% on the day and +3.29% over the following week, while the dollar index moved +1.04% and −0.74%. Next came the September 17, 2025 meeting, where the Fed cut rates by 25 bp to 4.00–4.25%; CPI inflation for September 2025 later printed 3.0%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2025-07-30 Reuters Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 25-08-07Higher US 'reciprocal' tariffs take effect
  New US tariff rates of 10% to 50% took effect for dozens of countries, with Brazil, India and Switzerland facing some of the highest. The US expected about $50 billion a month in tariff revenue.
  Reuters
- 25-08-01Trump fires the US labor statistics chief
  After weak jobs data and large downward revisions, Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, accusing her without evidence of rigging numbers. Economists warned about the credibility of US data.
  Reuters
202507.17
CNBC Squawk Box interview

Fed funds4.25–4.50% Gold-0.44%NDX+2.38%WTI+6.37% NeutralNext rate move2025.09 −25bp

“We need regime change at the Fed.”

Kevin Warsh · CNBC

No sourced public reaction for this moment.

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (June 2025) put CPI inflation at 2.7% year on year, core PCE at 2.8% and unemployment at 4.1%, with payrolls down 20k. The policy rate stood at 4.25–4.50%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 3.72%, markets seemed to expect rate cuts ahead. It came 13 days before the FOMC meeting of July 30, 2025, at which the Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50%. Trump was openly attacking Powell, writing on April 17, 2025 that his “termination cannot come fast enough,” which put Fed independence in the spotlight. Over July 2025 as a whole, gold finished −0.44% and the Nasdaq 100 +2.38%. At the next meeting on September 17, 2025 the Fed cut rates by 25 bp to 4.00–4.25%, and CPI inflation for September 2025 came in at 3.0%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2025-07-30 Reuters Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 3
- 25-08-07Higher US 'reciprocal' tariffs take effect
  New US tariff rates of 10% to 50% took effect for dozens of countries, with Brazil, India and Switzerland facing some of the highest. The US expected about $50 billion a month in tariff revenue.
  Reuters
- 25-08-01Trump fires the US labor statistics chief
  After weak jobs data and large downward revisions, Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, accusing her without evidence of rigging numbers. Economists warned about the credibility of US data.
  Reuters
- 25-07-04One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed
  Trump signed a sweeping tax and spending law extending his 2017 tax cuts and cutting some social programmes. Analysts expected it to add trillions to US deficits.
  Congress.gov
202506.24
Semiannual testimony to Congress

Fed funds4.25–4.50% Gold+0.57%NDX+6.27%WTI+7.11% NeutralNext rate move2025.09 −25bp

“For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”

Jerome Powell · Federal Reserve

Why it was said
When Powell said this, the latest data (May 2025) showed CPI inflation at 2.4% year on year, core PCE at 2.8% and unemployment at 4.3%, with employers adding 13k jobs. The policy rate stood at 4.25–4.50%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 3.89%, markets seemed to expect rate cuts ahead. It came 6 days after the FOMC meeting of June 18, 2025, at which the Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50%. Trump was openly attacking Powell, writing on April 17, 2025 that his “termination cannot come fast enough,” which put Fed independence in the spotlight. Over June 2025 as a whole, gold finished +0.57% and the Nasdaq 100 +6.27%. Next came the July 30, 2025 meeting, where the Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50%; CPI inflation for September 2025 later printed 3.0%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2025-06-18 Reuters Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 25-07-04One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed
  Trump signed a sweeping tax and spending law extending his 2017 tax cuts and cutting some social programmes. Analysts expected it to add trillions to US deficits.
  Congress.gov
- 25-06-13Israel–Iran 12-day war; US strikes nuclear sites (Jun 22)
  Israel launched strikes on Iran's nuclear and military sites, and the US bombed key nuclear facilities on 22 June. A ceasefire ended the 12-day war, after oil prices had spiked.
  Congress.gov
202506.18
FOMC press conference · held at 4.25–4.50%

Fed funds4.25–4.50% Gold+0.57%NDX+6.27%WTI+7.11% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2025.09 −25bp

“We do—we do also see price increases in some of the relevant categories like personal computers and audio-visual equipment—things like that that are attributable to tariff increases.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Powell (May 2025) showed CPI inflation at 2.4% year on year, core PCE at 2.8% and unemployment at 4.3%, with employers adding 13k jobs. With the policy rate at 4.25–4.50% and the 2-year yield near 3.89%, the bond market looked to be pricing in rate cuts ahead. At this meeting the FOMC held rates at 4.25–4.50%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. Trump was openly attacking Powell, writing on April 17, 2025 that his “termination cannot come fast enough,” which put Fed independence in the spotlight. Gold's reaction: +0.04% that day and −1.73% a week later; the dollar index went +0.09% and −1.69%. At the next meeting on July 30, 2025 the Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50%, and CPI inflation for September 2025 came in at 3.0%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2025-06-18 Reuters Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 25-07-04One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed
  Trump signed a sweeping tax and spending law extending his 2017 tax cuts and cutting some social programmes. Analysts expected it to add trillions to US deficits.
  Congress.gov
- 25-06-13Israel–Iran 12-day war; US strikes nuclear sites (Jun 22)
  Israel launched strikes on Iran's nuclear and military sites, and the US bombed key nuclear facilities on 22 June. A ceasefire ended the 12-day war, after oil prices had spiked.
  Congress.gov
202505.07
FOMC press conference · held at 4.25–4.50%

Fed funds4.25–4.50% Gold-0.91%NDX+9.04%WTI+4.43% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2025.09 −25bp

“So, I mean, ultimately, we think our policy rate is in—is in a good place to stay as we await further clarity on tariffs and, ultimately, their implications for the economy.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
When Powell said this, the latest data (April 2025) showed CPI inflation at 2.3% year on year, core PCE at 2.7% and unemployment at 4.2%, with employers adding 108k jobs. The policy rate stood at 4.25–4.50%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 3.6%, markets seemed to expect rate cuts ahead. The FOMC held rates at 4.25–4.50% that day, and these words were part of the explanation. Trump was openly attacking Powell, writing on April 17, 2025 that his “termination cannot come fast enough,” which put Fed independence in the spotlight. Afterwards gold moved −0.9% on the day and −6.85% over the following week, while the dollar index moved +0.37% and +1.81%. Next came the June 18, 2025 meeting, where the Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50%; CPI inflation for August 2025 later printed 2.9%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2025-05-07 Reuters Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 3
- 25-05-16Moody's downgrades US to Aa1
  Moody's stripped the US of its last top-tier credit rating, citing rising debt and interest costs. Long-dated Treasury yields climbed after the move.
  Moody's Reuters
- 25-05-12US–China Geneva tariff truce
  After talks in Geneva, the US and China agreed to cut their extra tariffs by 115 percentage points for 90 days. Stocks rallied on relief that the trade war was easing.
  White House
- 25-04-22Pahalgam attack, then India–Pakistan clashes
  Gunmen killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam in Indian Kashmir. India struck targets in Pakistan on 7 May, and four days of fighting ended in a US-brokered ceasefire.
  Reuters
202504.25
G30 Spring Lecture “Central Banking at a Crossroads” (IMF/G30)

Fed funds4.25–4.50% Gold+6.29%NDX+1.52%WTI-18.56% HawkNext rate move2025.09 −25bp

“The Fed’s current wounds are largely self-inflicted, and its plot armor isn’t what it once was. A strategic reset is necessary now more than ever.”

Kevin Warsh · G30 / YouTube

No sourced public reaction for this moment.

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Warsh (March 2025) showed CPI inflation at 2.4% year on year, core PCE at 2.6% and unemployment at 4.2%, with employers adding 67k jobs. With the policy rate at 4.25–4.50% and the 2-year yield near 3.89%, the bond market looked to be pricing in rate cuts ahead. It came 12 days before the FOMC meeting of May 7, 2025, at which the Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50%. Trump was openly attacking Powell, writing on April 17, 2025 that his “termination cannot come fast enough,” which put Fed independence in the spotlight. By the end of April 2025, gold was +6.29% on the month and the Nasdaq 100 +1.52%. At the next meeting on June 18, 2025 the Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50%, and CPI inflation for July 2025 came in at 2.7%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2025-05-07 Reuters Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 4
- 25-05-16Moody's downgrades US to Aa1
  Moody's stripped the US of its last top-tier credit rating, citing rising debt and interest costs. Long-dated Treasury yields climbed after the move.
  Moody's Reuters
- 25-05-12US–China Geneva tariff truce
  After talks in Geneva, the US and China agreed to cut their extra tariffs by 115 percentage points for 90 days. Stocks rallied on relief that the trade war was easing.
  White House
- 25-04-22Pahalgam attack, then India–Pakistan clashes
  Gunmen killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam in Indian Kashmir. India struck targets in Pakistan on 7 May, and four days of fighting ended in a US-brokered ceasefire.
  Reuters
- 25-04-04Korea court removes President Yoon
  South Korea's Constitutional Court unanimously upheld Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment over his martial-law decree and removed him from office. A snap presidential election followed.
  Yonhap
202504.17
Truth Social post a day after Powell’s Economic Club of Chicago speech

Fed funds4.25–4.50% Gold+6.29%NDX+1.52%WTI-18.56% NeutralNext rate move2025.09 −25bp

“Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”

Donald Trump · Reuters · CNBC

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (March 2025) put CPI inflation at 2.4% year on year, core PCE at 2.6% and unemployment at 4.2%, with employers adding 67k jobs. The policy rate stood at 4.25–4.50%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 3.89%, markets seemed to expect rate cuts ahead. It came 20 days before the FOMC meeting of May 7, 2025, at which the Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50%. Trump was openly attacking Powell, writing on April 17, 2025 that his “termination cannot come fast enough,” which put Fed independence in the spotlight. Over April 2025 as a whole, gold finished +6.29% and the Nasdaq 100 +1.52%. At the next meeting on June 18, 2025 the Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50%, and CPI inflation for July 2025 came in at 2.7%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2025-05-07 Reuters Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 3
- 25-04-22Pahalgam attack, then India–Pakistan clashes
  Gunmen killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam in Indian Kashmir. India struck targets in Pakistan on 7 May, and four days of fighting ended in a US-brokered ceasefire.
  Reuters
- 25-04-04Korea court removes President Yoon
  South Korea's Constitutional Court unanimously upheld Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment over his martial-law decree and removed him from office. A snap presidential election followed.
  Yonhap
- 25-04-02"Liberation Day" tariffs spark global selloff
  Trump announced sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs on almost all trading partners. Global stocks crashed and Treasury yields jumped before a 90-day pause was announced.
  Reuters
202504.16
Economic Club of Chicago, two weeks after the April tariff announcement

Fed funds4.25–4.50% Gold+6.29%NDX+1.52%WTI-18.56% NeutralNext rate move2025.09 −25bp

“The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated.”

Jerome Powell · Federal Reserve

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Powell (March 2025) showed CPI inflation at 2.4% year on year, core PCE at 2.6% and unemployment at 4.2%, with employers adding 67k jobs. With the policy rate at 4.25–4.50% and the 2-year yield near 3.89%, the bond market looked to be pricing in rate cuts ahead. It came 21 days before the FOMC meeting of May 7, 2025, at which the Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50%. On April 2, 2025 Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all countries plus higher “reciprocal” rates, putting the Fed in a bind between prices and growth. By the end of April 2025, gold was +6.29% on the month and the Nasdaq 100 +1.52%. At the next meeting on June 18, 2025 the Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50%, and CPI inflation for July 2025 came in at 2.7%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2025-05-07 White House Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 4
- 25-04-22Pahalgam attack, then India–Pakistan clashes
  Gunmen killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam in Indian Kashmir. India struck targets in Pakistan on 7 May, and four days of fighting ended in a US-brokered ceasefire.
  Reuters
- 25-04-04Korea court removes President Yoon
  South Korea's Constitutional Court unanimously upheld Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment over his martial-law decree and removed him from office. A snap presidential election followed.
  Yonhap
- 25-04-02"Liberation Day" tariffs spark global selloff
  Trump announced sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs on almost all trading partners. Global stocks crashed and Treasury yields jumped before a 90-day pause was announced.
  Reuters
- 25-03-2625% US tariffs on imported cars
  Trump proclaimed 25% Section 232 tariffs on imported cars from 3 April and on key auto parts from 3 May. Carmakers' shares fell worldwide.
  White House
202503.19
FOMC press conference · held at 4.25–4.50%

Fed funds4.25–4.50% Gold+9.63%NDX-7.69%WTI+2.47% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2025.09 −25bp

“Trying to track that back to actual tariff increases, given what was tariffed and what was not—very, very challenging.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (February 2025) put CPI inflation at 2.8% year on year, core PCE at 2.8% and unemployment at 4.2%, with employers adding 42k jobs. The policy rate stood at 4.25–4.50%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 3.99%, markets seemed to expect rate cuts ahead. At this meeting the FOMC held rates at 4.25–4.50%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. Trump returned to office on January 20, 2025 and, within days, told the Davos forum he would demand that rates drop immediately. Afterwards gold moved +0.01% on the day and −0.6% over the following week, while the dollar index moved +0.18% and +1.27%. At the next meeting on May 7, 2025 the Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50%, and CPI inflation for June 2025 came in at 2.7%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2025-03-19 Reuters Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 3
- 25-04-04Korea court removes President Yoon
  South Korea's Constitutional Court unanimously upheld Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment over his martial-law decree and removed him from office. A snap presidential election followed.
  Yonhap
- 25-04-02"Liberation Day" tariffs spark global selloff
  Trump announced sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs on almost all trading partners. Global stocks crashed and Treasury yields jumped before a 90-day pause was announced.
  Reuters
- 25-03-2625% US tariffs on imported cars
  Trump proclaimed 25% Section 232 tariffs on imported cars from 3 April and on key auto parts from 3 May. Carmakers' shares fell worldwide.
  White House
202502.11
Semiannual testimony, first under Trump’s second term

Fed funds4.25–4.50% Gold+1.28%NDX-2.76%WTI-3.82% NeutralNext rate move2025.09 −25bp

“With our policy stance now significantly less restrictive than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance.”

Jerome Powell · Federal Reserve

Why it was said
When Powell said this, the latest data (January 2025) showed CPI inflation at 3.0% year on year, core PCE at 2.8% and unemployment at 4.0%, with payrolls down 48k. The policy rate stood at 4.25–4.50%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 4.22%, markets seemed to expect little change in the near term. It came 13 days after the FOMC meeting of January 29, 2025, at which the Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50%. Trump returned to office on January 20, 2025 and, within days, told the Davos forum he would demand that rates drop immediately. Over February 2025 as a whole, gold finished +1.28% and the Nasdaq 100 −2.76%. Next came the March 19, 2025 meeting, where the Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50%; CPI inflation for May 2025 later printed 2.4%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2025-01-29 Reuters Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 25-02-01US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China (IEEPA)
  Trump used emergency powers (IEEPA) to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China, citing fentanyl and migration. It was the opening shot of a broad trade war.
  Reuters White House
- 25-01-27DeepSeek shock hits Nvidia
  Chinese start-up DeepSeek released a low-cost AI model rivalling US leaders. Nvidia lost nearly $600 billion in market value in a day, a record.
  Reuters CNBC
202501.29
FOMC press conference · held at 4.25–4.50%

Fed funds4.25–4.50% Gold+6.49%NDX+2.22%WTI+1.13% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2025.09 −25bp

“The public should be confident that we will continue to do our work as we always have—focusing on using our tools to achieve our goals, and really keeping our heads down and doing our work.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (December 2024) put CPI inflation at 2.9% year on year, core PCE at 2.9% and unemployment at 4.1%, with employers adding 237k jobs. The policy rate stood at 4.25–4.50%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 4.25%, markets seemed to expect little change in the near term. At this meeting the FOMC held rates at 4.25–4.50%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. Trump returned to office on January 20, 2025 and, within days, told the Davos forum he would demand that rates drop immediately. Afterwards gold moved +0.08% on the day and +4.53% over the following week, while the dollar index moved +0.12% and −0.27%. At the next meeting on March 19, 2025 the Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50%, and CPI inflation for April 2025 came in at 2.3%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2025-01-29 Reuters Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 25-02-01US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China (IEEPA)
  Trump used emergency powers (IEEPA) to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China, citing fentanyl and migration. It was the opening shot of a broad trade war.
  Reuters White House
- 25-01-27DeepSeek shock hits Nvidia
  Chinese start-up DeepSeek released a low-cost AI model rivalling US leaders. Nvidia lost nearly $600 billion in market value in a day, a record.
  Reuters CNBC
202501.23
Trump addresses Davos by video three days after taking office

Fed funds4.25–4.50% Gold+6.49%NDX+2.22%WTI+1.13% NeutralNext rate move2025.09 −25bp

“I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately. And likewise, they should be dropping all over the world.”

Donald Trump · Reuters · CNBC

Why it was said
When Trump said this, the latest data (December 2024) showed CPI inflation at 2.9% year on year, core PCE at 2.9% and unemployment at 4.1%, with employers adding 237k jobs. The policy rate stood at 4.25–4.50%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 4.25%, markets seemed to expect little change in the near term. It came 6 days before the FOMC meeting of January 29, 2025, at which the Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50%. Trump returned to office on January 20, 2025 and, within days, told the Davos forum he would demand that rates drop immediately. Over January 2025 as a whole, gold finished +6.49% and the Nasdaq 100 +2.22%. Next came the March 19, 2025 meeting, where the Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50%; CPI inflation for April 2025 later printed 2.3%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2025-01-29 Reuters Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 3
- 25-02-01US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China (IEEPA)
  Trump used emergency powers (IEEPA) to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China, citing fentanyl and migration. It was the opening shot of a broad trade war.
  Reuters White House
- 25-01-27DeepSeek shock hits Nvidia
  Chinese start-up DeepSeek released a low-cost AI model rivalling US leaders. Nvidia lost nearly $600 billion in market value in a day, a record.
  Reuters CNBC
- 25-01-07Los Angeles wildfires
  The Palisades and Eaton fires broke out on 7 January and burned more than 37,000 acres in Los Angeles County. They destroyed thousands of homes, among the costliest wildfires in US history.
  CAL FIRE CAL FIRE
Powell, 2nd term2022.05 – 2025.01
202412.18
FOMC press conference · −25 bp to 4.25–4.50%

Fed funds4.25–4.50% Gold-0.60%NDX+0.39%WTI+5.47% Dove▼ −25bpNext rate move2025.09 −25bp

“At 4.3 percent and “change,” we believe policy is still meaningfully restrictive.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Powell (November 2024) showed CPI inflation at 2.7% year on year, core PCE at 2.9% and unemployment at 4.2%, with employers adding 134k jobs. With the policy rate at 4.25–4.50% and the 2-year yield near 4.13%, the bond market looked to be pricing in little change in the near term. At this meeting the FOMC cut rates by 25 bp to 4.25–4.50%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. Donald Trump had just won the 2024 election with 312 electoral votes, and markets were pricing in his tariff and tax plans. Gold's reaction: −0.33% that day and −0.3% a week later; the dollar index went +1.00% and +1.09%. At the next meeting on January 29, 2025 the Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50%, and CPI inflation for March 2025 came in at 2.4%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2024-12-18 National Archives Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 3
- 25-01-07Los Angeles wildfires
  The Palisades and Eaton fires broke out on 7 January and burned more than 37,000 acres in Los Angeles County. They destroyed thousands of homes, among the costliest wildfires in US history.
  CAL FIRE CAL FIRE
- 24-12-08Assad regime falls in Syria
  Rebel forces captured Damascus and Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, ending more than 50 years of family rule. The fall reshaped the balance of power in the Middle East.
  Reuters
- 24-12-03South Korea martial law declared and lifted
  President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law, but parliament voted it down within hours. The won fell sharply and Yoon was later impeached.
  Reuters Yonhap
202411.07
FOMC press conference · −25 bp to 4.50–4.75%

Fed funds4.50–4.75% Gold-3.36%NDX+5.23%WTI-1.82% Dove▼ −25bpNext rate move2024.12 −25bp

“Today, the FOMC decided to take another step in reducing the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
When Powell said this, the latest data (October 2024) showed CPI inflation at 2.6% year on year, core PCE at 2.9% and unemployment at 4.1%, with employers adding 33k jobs. The policy rate stood at 4.50–4.75%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 4.16%, markets seemed to expect rate cuts ahead. The FOMC cut rates by 25 bp to 4.50–4.75% that day, and these words were part of the explanation. Donald Trump had just won the 2024 election with 312 electoral votes, and markets were pricing in his tariff and tax plans. Afterwards gold moved +1.1% on the day and −3.86% over the following week, while the dollar index moved −0.55% and +1.5%. Next came the December 18, 2024 meeting, where the Fed cut rates by 25 bp to 4.25–4.50%; CPI inflation for February 2025 later printed 2.8%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2024-11-07 National Archives Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 24-11-05US election: Trump wins
  Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris to win a second, non-consecutive term. Markets priced in tariffs, tax cuts and deregulation.
  AP
- 24-10-26Israel strikes military targets in Iran
  Israel hit Iranian missile factories and air-defence sites in retaliation for Iran's 1 October missile barrage. Iran said damage was limited, and oil prices fell as oil facilities were spared.
  Reuters
202409.18
FOMC · first cut in four years: −50 bp to 4.75–5.00%

Fed funds4.75–5.00% Gold+5.21%NDX+2.48%WTI-7.31% Dove▼ −50bpNext rate move2024.11 −25bp

“This decision reflects our growing confidence that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

“Lowering interest rates isn’t a declaration of victory. It’s a declaration of progress, to signal we’ve entered a new phase of our economy and our recovery.”

Joe Biden · AP via PBS (Sep 19) · The Hill

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Powell (August 2024) showed CPI inflation at 2.6% year on year, core PCE at 2.9% and unemployment at 4.2%, with employers adding 9k jobs. With the policy rate at 4.75–5.00% and the 2-year yield near 3.91%, the bond market looked to be pricing in rate cuts ahead. At this meeting the FOMC cut rates by 50 bp to 4.75–5.00%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. 2024 was a presidential election year, so every Fed move was read through the lens of the November 5 vote. Gold's reaction: +0.24% that day and +3.56% a week later; the dollar index went −0.29% and +0.03%. At the next meeting on November 7, 2024 the Fed cut rates by 25 bp to 4.50–4.75%, and CPI inflation for December 2024 came in at 2.9%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2024-09-18 National Archives Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 24-09-27Israel kills Hezbollah leader Nasrallah
  An Israeli air strike on Hezbollah's headquarters in Beirut killed its long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah. It was a major escalation of the Israel–Hezbollah conflict.
  Reuters
- 24-09-24China unveils a broad stimulus package
  The People's Bank of China cut rates and reserve requirements and launched new tools to support stocks and mortgages. Chinese shares surged and global commodity prices rose.
  Reuters
202408.23
Jackson Hole speech · signals the first cut

Fed funds5.25–5.50% Gold+4.17%NDX+1.10%WTI-5.60% DoveNext rate move2024.09 −50bp

“The time has come for policy to adjust.”

Jerome Powell · Federal Reserve

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (July 2024) put CPI inflation at 2.9% year on year, core PCE at 2.8% and unemployment at 4.2%, with employers adding 53k jobs. The policy rate stood at 5.25–5.50%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 4.29%, markets seemed to expect rate cuts ahead. It came 23 days after the FOMC meeting of July 31, 2024, at which the Fed held rates at 5.25–5.50%. 2024 was a presidential election year, so every Fed move was read through the lens of the November 5 vote. Over August 2024 as a whole, gold finished +4.17% and the Nasdaq 100 +1.1%. At the next meeting on September 18, 2024 the Fed cut rates by 50 bp to 4.75–5.00%, and CPI inflation for November 2024 came in at 2.7%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2024-07-31 National Archives Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 1
- 24-08-05Yen carry unwind, Nikkei plunges 12%
  A BOJ rate hike and weak US jobs data triggered a rapid unwinding of yen carry trades. Japan's Nikkei fell 12% in a day, its worst rout since 1987.
  Reuters
202407.31
FOMC press conference · held at 5.25–5.50%

Fed funds5.25–5.50% Gold+3.71%NDX-1.63%WTI-4.45% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2024.09 −50bp

“If, if inflation were to prove, you know, sticky and we were to see higher readings from inflation, disappointing readings, we would weigh that along with the other things.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Powell (June 2024) showed CPI inflation at 3.0% year on year, core PCE at 2.8% and unemployment at 4.1%, with employers adding 87k jobs. With the policy rate at 5.25–5.50% and the 2-year yield near 4.71%, the bond market looked to be pricing in rate cuts ahead. At this meeting the FOMC held rates at 5.25–5.50%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. 2024 was a presidential election year, so every Fed move was read through the lens of the November 5 vote. Gold's reaction: +0.89% that day and +1.14% a week later; the dollar index went −0.43% and −1.29%. At the next meeting on September 18, 2024 the Fed cut rates by 50 bp to 4.75–5.00%, and CPI inflation for October 2024 came in at 2.6%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2024-07-31 National Archives Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 3
- 24-08-05Yen carry unwind, Nikkei plunges 12%
  A BOJ rate hike and weak US jobs data triggered a rapid unwinding of yen carry trades. Japan's Nikkei fell 12% in a day, its worst rout since 1987.
  Reuters
- 24-07-19CrowdStrike global IT outage
  A faulty CrowdStrike software update crashed millions of Windows computers worldwide. Airlines, banks and hospitals were disrupted for days.
  Reuters
- 24-07-13Assassination attempt on Trump
  A gunman fired at Donald Trump during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, wounding his ear and killing a spectator. Secret Service agents shot the attacker dead.
  AP
202406.12
FOMC press conference · held at 5.25–5.50%

Fed funds5.25–5.50% Gold+0.72%NDX+6.18%WTI+5.91% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2024.09 −50bp

“If you’re at 2.6, 2.7 [percent], you know, that’s, that’s a really good place to be.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (May 2024) put CPI inflation at 3.2% year on year, core PCE at 2.8% and unemployment at 3.9%, with employers adding 78k jobs. The policy rate stood at 5.25–5.50%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 4.89%, markets seemed to expect rate cuts ahead. At this meeting the FOMC held rates at 5.25–5.50%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. 2024 was a presidential election year, so every Fed move was read through the lens of the November 5 vote. Afterwards gold moved +1.21% on the day and +1.82% over the following week, while the dollar index moved −0.55% and +0.34%. At the next meeting on July 31, 2024 the Fed held rates at 5.25–5.50%, and CPI inflation for September 2024 came in at 2.4%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2024-06-12 National Archives Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 24-06-06ECB makes its first rate cut since 2019
  The ECB cut its key rates by 25 basis points, with the deposit rate falling to 3.75%. It moved ahead of the Fed, which waited until September.
  ECB
- 24-06-04India election: Modi loses majority
  Modi's BJP won 240 of 543 seats, losing its outright majority, though its alliance kept power. Indian stocks had their worst day in four years before recovering.
  Reuters
202405.01
FOMC press conference · held at 5.25–5.50%

Fed funds5.25–5.50% Gold+0.87%NDX+6.28%WTI-6.03% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2024.09 −50bp

“So I do think the evidence shows, you know, pretty clearly that policy is restrictive and is weighing on demand, and there are a few places I would point to for that.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
When Powell said this, the latest data (April 2024) showed CPI inflation at 3.4% year on year, core PCE at 3.0% and unemployment at 3.9%, with employers adding 64k jobs. The policy rate stood at 5.25–5.50%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 5.04%, markets seemed to expect little change in the near term. The FOMC held rates at 5.25–5.50% that day, and these words were part of the explanation. 2024 was a presidential election year, so every Fed move was read through the lens of the November 5 vote. Afterwards gold moved +0.35% on the day and +0.84% over the following week, while the dollar index moved −0.43% and −0.63%. Next came the June 12, 2024 meeting, where the Fed held rates at 5.25–5.50%; CPI inflation for August 2024 later printed 2.6%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2024-05-01 National Archives Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 24-05-14US hikes tariffs on Chinese EVs to 100%
  After a four-year review, the US announced higher tariffs on Chinese goods, quadrupling the duty on electric vehicles to 100%. Chips, solar cells and batteries were also targeted.
  USTR
- 24-04-13Iran launches first direct attack on Israel
  Iran fired more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel in retaliation for a strike on its Damascus embassy compound. Almost all were intercepted, but the attack raised fears of a regional war.
  Reuters
202403.20
FOMC press conference · held at 5.25–5.50%

Fed funds5.25–5.50% Gold+7.92%NDX+1.17%WTI+6.27% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2024.09 −50bp

“But I take the two of them together, and I think they haven’t really changed the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually on a sometimes-bumpy road toward 2 percent.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (February 2024) put CPI inflation at 3.2% year on year, core PCE at 3.2% and unemployment at 3.9%, with employers adding 206k jobs. The policy rate stood at 5.25–5.50%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 4.64%, markets seemed to expect rate cuts ahead. At this meeting the FOMC held rates at 5.25–5.50%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. 2024 was a presidential election year, so every Fed move was read through the lens of the November 5 vote. Afterwards gold moved +0.06% on the day and +1.43% over the following week, while the dollar index moved −0.39% and +0.52%. At the next meeting on May 1, 2024 the Fed held rates at 5.25–5.50%, and CPI inflation for June 2024 came in at 3.0%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2024-03-20 National Archives Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 24-03-22Crocus City Hall attack in Moscow
  Gunmen attacked a concert hall near Moscow, killing more than 140 people. Islamic State claimed responsibility.
  Reuters
- 24-03-19Bank of Japan ends negative rates
  The BOJ raised rates for the first time in 17 years and ended negative interest rates and yield-curve control. It marked the end of the world's last negative-rate regime.
  BOJ
202403.06
Semiannual testimony to Congress

Fed funds5.25–5.50% Gold+7.92%NDX+1.17%WTI+6.27% NeutralNext rate move2024.09 −50bp

“While inflation remains above the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) objective of 2 percent, it has eased substantially, and the slowing in inflation has occurred without a significant increase in unemployment.”

Jerome Powell · Federal Reserve

Why it was said
When Powell said this, the latest data (February 2024) showed CPI inflation at 3.2% year on year, core PCE at 3.2% and unemployment at 3.9%, with employers adding 206k jobs. The policy rate stood at 5.25–5.50%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 4.64%, markets seemed to expect rate cuts ahead. It came 14 days before the FOMC meeting of March 20, 2024, at which the Fed held rates at 5.25–5.50%. 2024 was a presidential election year, so every Fed move was read through the lens of the November 5 vote. Over March 2024 as a whole, gold finished +7.92% and the Nasdaq 100 +1.17%. Next came the May 1, 2024 meeting, where the Fed held rates at 5.25–5.50%; CPI inflation for June 2024 later printed 3.0%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2024-03-20 National Archives Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 3
- 24-03-22Crocus City Hall attack in Moscow
  Gunmen attacked a concert hall near Moscow, killing more than 140 people. Islamic State claimed responsibility.
  Reuters
- 24-03-19Bank of Japan ends negative rates
  The BOJ raised rates for the first time in 17 years and ended negative interest rates and yield-curve control. It marked the end of the world's last negative-rate regime.
  BOJ
- 24-02-22Nikkei tops its 1989 record
  Japan's Nikkei 225 closed at a record 39,098, finally surpassing its bubble-era peak from December 1989. Chip stocks led the rally after Nvidia's strong outlook.
  Reuters
202401.31
FOMC press conference · held at 5.25–5.50%

Fed funds5.25–5.50% Gold-1.13%NDX+1.85%WTI+5.86% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2024.09 −50bp

“But, yes, if you think about, you know—in, in the base case, the economy is performing well—the labor market remains strong.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Powell (December 2023) showed CPI inflation at 3.3% year on year, core PCE at 3.2% and unemployment at 3.8%, with employers adding 154k jobs. With the policy rate at 5.25–5.50% and the 2-year yield near 4.23%, the bond market looked to be pricing in rate cuts ahead. At this meeting the FOMC held rates at 5.25–5.50%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. 2024 was a presidential election year, so every Fed move was read through the lens of the November 5 vote. Gold's reaction: +0.83% that day and +0.99% a week later; the dollar index went −0.13% and +0.62%. At the next meeting on March 20, 2024 the Fed held rates at 5.25–5.50%, and CPI inflation for April 2024 came in at 3.4%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2024-01-31 National Archives Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 24-01-13Taiwan elects Lai Ching-te
  Lai Ching-te of the ruling DPP won Taiwan's presidential election with about 40% of the vote, a result Beijing opposed. His party lost its majority in parliament.
  Reuters
- 24-01-10SEC approves spot bitcoin ETFs
  The SEC approved 11 spot bitcoin exchange-traded products after losing a court case to Grayscale. Chair Gensler stressed the approval was not an endorsement of bitcoin.
  SEC
202312.13
FOMC press conference · held at 5.25–5.50%

Fed funds5.25–5.50% Gold+1.65%NDX+5.51%WTI-5.67% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2024.09 −50bp

“I think you can say that there’s little basis for thinking that the economy is in a recession now.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
When Powell said this, the latest data (November 2023) showed CPI inflation at 3.1% year on year, core PCE at 3.4% and unemployment at 3.7%, with employers adding 127k jobs. The policy rate stood at 5.25–5.50%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 4.73%, markets seemed to expect rate cuts ahead. The FOMC held rates at 5.25–5.50% that day, and these words were part of the explanation. In Washington, the debt-ceiling standoff had ended with the Fiscal Responsibility Act, signed on June 3, 2023. Afterwards gold moved +0.21% on the day and +2.73% over the following week, while the dollar index moved −0.96% and −1.41%. Next came the January 31, 2024 meeting, where the Fed held rates at 5.25–5.50%; CPI inflation for March 2024 later printed 3.5%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2023-12-13 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 1
- 23-12-13COP28 deal on moving away from fossil fuels
  At COP28 in Dubai, nearly 200 countries agreed for the first time to 'transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems'. The deal also called for tripling renewable capacity by 2030.
  UNFCCC
202311.01
FOMC press conference · held at 5.25–5.50%

Fed funds5.25–5.50% Gold+2.20%NDX+10.67%WTI-6.25% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2024.09 −50bp

“GDP growth has been strong, although many forecasters are forecasting, and they have been forecasting, that it will slow.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Powell (October 2023) showed CPI inflation at 3.3% year on year, core PCE at 3.6% and unemployment at 3.9%, with employers adding 159k jobs. With the policy rate at 5.25–5.50% and the 2-year yield near 5.07%, the bond market looked to be pricing in little change in the near term. At this meeting the FOMC held rates at 5.25–5.50%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. In Washington, the debt-ceiling standoff had ended with the Fiscal Responsibility Act, signed on June 3, 2023. Gold's reaction: −0.34% that day and −1.83% a week later; the dollar index went +0.21% and −1.00%. At the next meeting on December 13, 2023 the Fed held rates at 5.25–5.50%, and CPI inflation for February 2024 came in at 3.2%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2023-11-01 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 1
- 23-11-19Houthis begin Red Sea shipping attacks
  Yemen's Houthis seized a cargo ship and began attacking vessels in the Red Sea. Many shipping lines rerouted around Africa, raising freight costs.
  Reuters BBC
202309.20
FOMC press conference · held at 5.25–5.50%

Fed funds5.25–5.50% Gold-5.08%NDX-5.07%WTI+8.56% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2024.09 −50bp

“And we say we’re committed to achieving and sustaining a stance of monetary policy that’s sufficiently restrictive to bring down inflation to 2 percent over time—we said that.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (August 2023) put CPI inflation at 3.7% year on year, core PCE at 3.8% and unemployment at 3.7%, with employers adding 218k jobs. The policy rate stood at 5.25–5.50%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 4.85%, markets seemed to expect rate cuts ahead. At this meeting the FOMC held rates at 5.25–5.50%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. In Washington, the debt-ceiling standoff had ended with the Fiscal Responsibility Act, signed on June 3, 2023. Over September 2023 as a whole, gold finished −5.08% and the Nasdaq 100 −5.07%. At the next meeting on November 1, 2023 the Fed held rates at 5.25–5.50%, and CPI inflation for December 2023 came in at 3.3%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2023-09-20 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 23-10-07Hamas attacks Israel; Gaza war begins
  Hamas fighters attacked southern Israel, killing about 1,200 people and taking some 250 hostages. Israel launched a war in Gaza that lasted two years and raised fears of a wider Middle East conflict.
  AP Reuters
- 23-09-15UAW strike hits Detroit's Big Three
  About 13,000 United Auto Workers members walked out at GM, Ford and Stellantis plants at the same time for the first time. The strike lasted about six weeks and ended with large wage increases.
  AP
202308.25
Jackson Hole speech · rates at 5.25–5.50% after the July hike

Fed funds5.25–5.50% Gold-0.23%NDX-1.62%WTI+2.24% HawkNext rate move2024.09 −50bp

“We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.”

Jerome Powell · Federal Reserve

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Powell (July 2023) showed CPI inflation at 3.3% year on year, core PCE at 4.2% and unemployment at 3.5%, with employers adding 163k jobs. With the policy rate at 5.25–5.50% and the 2-year yield near 4.88%, the bond market looked to be pricing in rate cuts ahead. It came 26 days before the FOMC meeting of September 20, 2023, at which the Fed held rates at 5.25–5.50%. In Washington, the debt-ceiling standoff had ended with the Fiscal Responsibility Act, signed on June 3, 2023. By the end of August 2023, gold was −0.23% on the month and the Nasdaq 100 −1.62%. At the next meeting on November 1, 2023 the Fed held rates at 5.25–5.50%, and CPI inflation for November 2023 came in at 3.1%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2023-09-20 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 1
- 23-09-15UAW strike hits Detroit's Big Three
  About 13,000 United Auto Workers members walked out at GM, Ford and Stellantis plants at the same time for the first time. The strike lasted about six weeks and ended with large wage increases.
  AP
202307.26
FOMC press conference · +25 bp to 5.25–5.50%

Fed funds5.25–5.50% Gold+2.13%NDX+3.81%WTI+15.80% Hawk▲ +25bpNext rate move2024.09 −50bp

“So if you go back to what we’re trying to do here, we’re trying to achieve a stance of policy that’s sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (June 2023) put CPI inflation at 3.1% year on year, core PCE at 4.4% and unemployment at 3.6%, with employers adding 225k jobs. The policy rate stood at 5.25–5.50%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 4.87%, markets seemed to expect rate cuts ahead. At this meeting the FOMC raised rates by 25 bp to 5.25–5.50%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. In Washington, the debt-ceiling standoff had ended with the Fiscal Responsibility Act, signed on June 3, 2023. Over July 2023 as a whole, gold finished +2.13% and the Nasdaq 100 +3.81%. At the next meeting on September 20, 2023 the Fed held rates at 5.25–5.50%, and CPI inflation for October 2023 came in at 3.3%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2023-07-26 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 23-08-01Fitch downgrades US to AA+
  Fitch cut the US credit rating from AAA, citing fiscal deterioration and repeated debt-limit standoffs. The move added to pressure on long-term Treasury yields.
  Fitch
- 23-07-17Russia quits the Black Sea Grain deal
  Russia ended the UN-brokered deal that had let Ukraine export over 32 million tonnes of food through the Black Sea. Wheat and corn prices jumped on supply worries.
  UN News
202306.14
FOMC press conference · held at 5.00–5.25%

Fed funds5.00–5.25% Gold-1.76%NDX+6.49%WTI+3.75% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2023.07 +25bp

“In light of how far we’ve come in tightening policy, the uncertain lags with which monetary policy affects the economy, and potential headwinds from credit tightening, today we decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
When Powell said this, the latest data (May 2023) showed CPI inflation at 4.1% year on year, core PCE at 4.8% and unemployment at 3.6%, with employers adding 280k jobs. The policy rate stood at 5.00–5.25%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 4.4%, markets seemed to expect rate cuts ahead. The FOMC held rates at 5.00–5.25% that day, and these words were part of the explanation. In Washington, the debt-ceiling standoff had ended with the Fiscal Responsibility Act, signed on June 3, 2023. Over June 2023 as a whole, gold finished −1.76% and the Nasdaq 100 +6.49%. Next came the July 26, 2023 meeting, where the Fed raised rates by 25 bp to 5.25–5.50%; CPI inflation for September 2023 later printed 3.7%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2023-06-14 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 23-06-24Wagner Group mutiny in Russia
  Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin led an armed march toward Moscow, the biggest challenge to Putin's rule in decades. He turned back within a day under a deal brokered by Belarus.
  Reuters
- 23-06-03US debt-ceiling deal signed
  Biden signed the Fiscal Responsibility Act, suspending the debt limit until 2025 and capping some spending. It ended the risk of a US default days before the deadline.
  Congress.gov
202305.03
FOMC press conference · +25 bp to 5.00–5.25%

Fed funds5.00–5.25% Gold-1.76%NDX+7.61%WTI-11.32% Hawk▲ +25bpNext rate move2023.07 +25bp

“My colleagues and I understand the hardship that high inflation is causing, and we remain strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (April 2023) put CPI inflation at 5.0% year on year, core PCE at 4.9% and unemployment at 3.4%, with employers adding 241k jobs. The policy rate stood at 5.00–5.25%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 4.04%, markets seemed to expect rate cuts ahead. At this meeting the FOMC raised rates by 25 bp to 5.00–5.25%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. Silicon Valley Bank had failed on March 10, 2023, and the Treasury, Fed and FDIC stepped in two days later to protect all depositors. Over May 2023 as a whole, gold finished −1.76% and the Nasdaq 100 +7.61%. At the next meeting on June 14, 2023 the Fed held rates at 5.00–5.25%, and CPI inflation for August 2023 came in at 3.7%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2023-05-03 Federal Reserve Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 1
- 23-05-01First Republic fails, JPMorgan buys it
  First Republic Bank was seized by regulators and sold to JPMorgan Chase. It was the largest US bank failure since 2008.
  FDIC
202303.22
FOMC · +25 bp to 4.75–5.00% a week after the SVB failure

Fed funds4.75–5.00% Gold+7.20%NDX+9.46%WTI-1.79% Hawk▲ +25bpNext rate move2023.05 +25bp

“Our banking system is sound and resilient, with strong capital and liquidity.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
When Powell said this, the latest data (February 2023) showed CPI inflation at 6.0% year on year, core PCE at 4.9% and unemployment at 3.6%, with employers adding 290k jobs. The policy rate stood at 4.75–5.00%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 4.81%, markets seemed to expect little change in the near term. The FOMC raised rates by 25 bp to 4.75–5.00% that day, and these words were part of the explanation. Silicon Valley Bank had failed on March 10, 2023, and the Treasury, Fed and FDIC stepped in two days later to protect all depositors. Over March 2023 as a whole, gold finished +7.2% and the Nasdaq 100 +9.46%. Next came the May 3, 2023 meeting, where the Fed raised rates by 25 bp to 5.00–5.25%; CPI inflation for June 2023 later printed 3.1%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2023-03-22 Federal Reserve Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 3
- 23-04-02OPEC+ surprise output cut
  Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ producers announced surprise extra cuts of about 1.16 million barrels a day. Oil jumped around 6% the next day; the US called the move inadvisable.
  Reuters
- 23-03-19UBS takes over Credit Suisse
  Swiss authorities arranged an emergency takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS. About $17 billion of the bank's AT1 bonds were written off, shocking bond investors.
  FINMA
- 23-03-10Silicon Valley Bank fails
  Silicon Valley Bank collapsed after a deposit run triggered by losses on its bond holdings, the second-largest US bank failure. Regulators guaranteed all deposits and the Fed created an emergency lending facility.
  FDIC
202303.07
Semiannual testimony, days before the SVB failure

Fed funds4.75–5.00% Gold+7.20%NDX+9.46%WTI-1.79% HawkNext rate move2023.05 +25bp

“My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation is causing significant hardship, and we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent goal.”

Jerome Powell · Federal Reserve

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Powell (February 2023) showed CPI inflation at 6.0% year on year, core PCE at 4.9% and unemployment at 3.6%, with employers adding 290k jobs. With the policy rate at 4.75–5.00% and the 2-year yield near 4.81%, the bond market looked to be pricing in little change in the near term. It came 15 days before the FOMC meeting of March 22, 2023, at which the Fed raised rates by 25 bp to 4.75–5.00%. Politically, Biden had signed the Inflation Reduction Act on August 16, 2022, and inflation was a central issue heading into the November midterms. By the end of March 2023, gold was +7.2% on the month and the Nasdaq 100 +9.46%. At the next meeting on May 3, 2023 the Fed raised rates by 25 bp to 5.00–5.25%, and CPI inflation for June 2023 came in at 3.1%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2023-03-22 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 23-03-19UBS takes over Credit Suisse
  Swiss authorities arranged an emergency takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS. About $17 billion of the bank's AT1 bonds were written off, shocking bond investors.
  FINMA
- 23-03-10Silicon Valley Bank fails
  Silicon Valley Bank collapsed after a deposit run triggered by losses on its bond holdings, the second-largest US bank failure. Regulators guaranteed all deposits and the Fed created an emergency lending facility.
  FDIC
202302.01
FOMC press conference · +25 bp to 4.50–4.75%

Fed funds4.50–4.75% Gold-4.81%NDX-0.49%WTI-2.31% Hawk▲ +25bpNext rate move2023.03 +25bp

“And it is our judgment that we’re not yet at a sufficiently restrictive policy stance, which is why we say that we expect ongoing hikes will be appropriate.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
When Powell said this, the latest data (January 2023) showed CPI inflation at 6.3% year on year, core PCE at 5.0% and unemployment at 3.5%, with employers adding 434k jobs. The policy rate stood at 4.50–4.75%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 4.21%, markets seemed to expect rate cuts ahead. The FOMC raised rates by 25 bp to 4.50–4.75% that day, and these words were part of the explanation. Politically, Biden had signed the Inflation Reduction Act on August 16, 2022, and inflation was a central issue heading into the November midterms. Over February 2023 as a whole, gold finished −4.81% and the Nasdaq 100 −0.49%. Next came the March 22, 2023 meeting, where the Fed raised rates by 25 bp to 4.75–5.00%; CPI inflation for May 2023 later printed 4.1%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2023-02-01 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 23-02-06Turkey–Syria earthquakes
  A magnitude 7.8 earthquake, followed by a 7.5 quake hours later, struck southern Türkiye and northern Syria. Tens of thousands were killed and whole cities were devastated.
  WHO
- 23-01-19US hits debt limit; extraordinary measures
  The US reached its $31.4 trillion debt limit and the Treasury began special accounting measures to keep paying bills. It started a months-long standoff in Congress.
  US Treasury
202212.14
FOMC press conference · +50 bp to 4.25–4.50%

Fed funds4.25–4.50% Gold+4.59%NDX-9.06%WTI-0.36% Hawk▲ +50bpNext rate move2023.02 +25bp

“I think now that we’re coming to the end of this year, we’ve raised 425 basis points this year, and we’re into restrictive territory.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Powell (November 2022) showed CPI inflation at 7.1% year on year, core PCE at 5.3% and unemployment at 3.6%, with employers adding 303k jobs. With the policy rate at 4.25–4.50% and the 2-year yield near 4.38%, the bond market looked to be pricing in little change in the near term. At this meeting the FOMC raised rates by 50 bp to 4.25–4.50%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. Politically, Biden had signed the Inflation Reduction Act on August 16, 2022, and inflation was a central issue heading into the November midterms. By the end of December 2022, gold was +4.59% on the month and the Nasdaq 100 −9.06%. At the next meeting on February 1, 2023 the Fed raised rates by 25 bp to 4.50–4.75%, and CPI inflation for March 2023 came in at 4.9%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2022-12-14 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 1
- 22-12-07China ends zero-COVID
  China abruptly dropped most of its zero-COVID rules after protests and economic damage. The reopening boosted hopes for global demand, despite a wave of infections.
  Reuters
202211.30
Brookings Institution speech

Fed funds3.75–4.00% Gold+6.42%NDX+5.48%WTI-6.91% HawkNext rate move2022.12 +50bp

“Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy.”

Jerome Powell · Federal Reserve

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (October 2022) put CPI inflation at 7.8% year on year, core PCE at 5.5% and unemployment at 3.6%, with employers adding 357k jobs. The policy rate stood at 3.75–4.00%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 4.51%, markets seemed to expect more rate hikes. It came 14 days before the FOMC meeting of December 14, 2022, at which the Fed raised rates by 50 bp to 4.25–4.50%. Politically, Biden had signed the Inflation Reduction Act on August 16, 2022, and inflation was a central issue heading into the November midterms. Over November 2022 as a whole, gold finished +6.42% and the Nasdaq 100 +5.48%. At the next meeting on February 1, 2023 the Fed raised rates by 25 bp to 4.50–4.75%, and CPI inflation for February 2023 came in at 6.0%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2022-12-14 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 22-12-07China ends zero-COVID
  China abruptly dropped most of its zero-COVID rules after protests and economic damage. The reopening boosted hopes for global demand, despite a wave of infections.
  Reuters
- 22-11-11FTX files for bankruptcy
  Crypto exchange FTX collapsed and filed for bankruptcy after a run on deposits; founder Sam Bankman-Fried resigned. He was later convicted of fraud.
  AP Reuters
202211.02
FOMC press conference · +75 bp to 3.75–4.00%

Fed funds3.75–4.00% Gold+6.42%NDX+5.48%WTI-6.91% Hawk▲ +75bpNext rate move2022.12 +50bp

“We need to bring our policy stance down to a level that’s sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to our 2 percent objective over the medium term.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Powell (October 2022) showed CPI inflation at 7.8% year on year, core PCE at 5.5% and unemployment at 3.6%, with employers adding 357k jobs. With the policy rate at 3.75–4.00% and the 2-year yield near 4.51%, the bond market looked to be pricing in more rate hikes. At this meeting the FOMC raised rates by 75 bp to 3.75–4.00%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. Politically, Biden had signed the Inflation Reduction Act on August 16, 2022, and inflation was a central issue heading into the November midterms. By the end of November 2022, gold was +6.42% on the month and the Nasdaq 100 +5.48%. At the next meeting on December 14, 2022 the Fed raised rates by 50 bp to 4.25–4.50%, and CPI inflation for February 2023 came in at 6.0%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2022-11-02 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 22-11-11FTX files for bankruptcy
  Crypto exchange FTX collapsed and filed for bankruptcy after a run on deposits; founder Sam Bankman-Fried resigned. He was later convicted of fraud.
  AP Reuters
- 22-11-08US midterm elections
  Republicans won a narrow House majority while Democrats kept the Senate. The split Congress set up later fights over the debt ceiling.
  AP
202209.21
FOMC press conference · +75 bp to 3.00–3.25%

Fed funds3.00–3.25% Gold-3.14%NDX-10.60%WTI-11.23% Hawk▲ +75bpNext rate move2022.11 +75bp

“The FOMC is strongly resolved to bring inflation down to 2 percent, and we will keep at it until the job is done.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (August 2022) put CPI inflation at 8.2% year on year, core PCE at 5.4% and unemployment at 3.6%, with employers adding 290k jobs. The policy rate stood at 3.00–3.25%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 3.45%, markets seemed to expect little change in the near term. At this meeting the FOMC raised rates by 75 bp to 3.00–3.25%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. Politically, Biden had signed the Inflation Reduction Act on August 16, 2022, and inflation was a central issue heading into the November midterms. Over September 2022 as a whole, gold finished −3.14% and the Nasdaq 100 −10.6%. At the next meeting on November 2, 2022 the Fed raised rates by 75 bp to 3.75–4.00%, and CPI inflation for December 2022 came in at 6.4%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2022-09-21 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 4
- 22-10-07US chip export controls on China
  The US restricted exports of advanced chips and chipmaking tools to China. The rules marked a major escalation in the tech rivalry between the two countries.
  BIS
- 22-10-05OPEC+ cuts output by 2m bpd
  OPEC+ agreed its biggest production cut since 2020, 2 million barrels a day, despite US objections. Oil prices rose, complicating central banks' fight against inflation.
  Reuters
- 22-09-26Nord Stream pipelines sabotaged
  Explosions ruptured the Nord Stream gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea. Denmark said the leaks were deliberate, deepening Europe's energy crisis.
  AP Reuters
- 22-09-23UK mini-budget triggers gilt crash
  The UK government announced large unfunded tax cuts, sending gilt yields soaring and the pound to a record low. The Bank of England had to intervene to stabilise pension funds.
  Bank of England
202208.26
Jackson Hole speech · warns of pain from fighting inflation

Fed funds2.25–2.50% Gold-2.08%NDX-5.22%WTI-9.20% HawkNext rate move2022.09 +75bp

“These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.”

Jerome Powell · Federal Reserve

Why it was said
When Powell said this, the latest data (July 2022) showed CPI inflation at 8.5% year on year, core PCE at 5.2% and unemployment at 3.5%, with employers adding 714k jobs. The policy rate stood at 2.25–2.50%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 2.89%, markets seemed to expect more rate hikes. It came 26 days before the FOMC meeting of September 21, 2022, at which the Fed raised rates by 75 bp to 3.00–3.25%. Politically, Biden had signed the Inflation Reduction Act on August 16, 2022, and inflation was a central issue heading into the November midterms. Over August 2022 as a whole, gold finished −2.08% and the Nasdaq 100 −5.22%. Next came the November 2, 2022 meeting, where the Fed raised rates by 75 bp to 3.75–4.00%; CPI inflation for November 2022 later printed 7.1%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2022-09-21 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 1
- 22-08-16US Inflation Reduction Act signed
  Biden signed a law with large clean-energy tax credits, drug-price measures and a minimum corporate tax. Its subsidies spurred a wave of factory investment in the US.
  Congress.gov
202207.27
FOMC press conference · +75 bp to 2.25–2.50%

Fed funds2.25–2.50% Gold-2.46%NDX+12.55%WTI-6.75% Hawk▲ +75bpNext rate move2022.09 +75bp

“My colleagues and I are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down, and we’re moving expeditiously to do so.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (June 2022) put CPI inflation at 9.0% year on year, core PCE at 5.3% and unemployment at 3.6%, with employers adding 434k jobs. The policy rate stood at 2.25–2.50%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 2.92%, markets seemed to expect more rate hikes. At this meeting the FOMC raised rates by 75 bp to 2.25–2.50%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 had pushed energy and food prices higher, a risk the Fed flagged in its own statement. Over July 2022 as a whole, gold finished −2.46% and the Nasdaq 100 +12.55%. At the next meeting on September 21, 2022 the Fed raised rates by 75 bp to 3.00–3.25%, and CPI inflation for October 2022 came in at 7.8%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2022-07-27 Federal Reserve Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 3
- 22-08-16US Inflation Reduction Act signed
  Biden signed a law with large clean-energy tax credits, drug-price measures and a minimum corporate tax. Its subsidies spurred a wave of factory investment in the US.
  Congress.gov
- 22-08-02Pelosi visits Taiwan, China drills
  US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan despite Chinese warnings. Beijing responded with its largest-ever military drills around the island, raising US–China tensions.
  Reuters
- 22-07-08Former Japan PM Shinzo Abe assassinated
  Shinzo Abe, Japan's longest-serving prime minister, was shot dead while giving a campaign speech in Nara. His death shocked a country with very low gun crime.
  Reuters
202206.22
Semiannual testimony a week after the 75 bp hike

Fed funds1.50–1.75% Gold-1.92%NDX-9.00%WTI-7.77% HawkNext rate move2022.07 +75bp

“We have both the tools we need and the resolve it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses.”

Jerome Powell · Federal Reserve

Why it was said
When Powell said this, the latest data (May 2022) showed CPI inflation at 8.5% year on year, core PCE at 5.2% and unemployment at 3.6%, with employers adding 301k jobs. The policy rate stood at 1.50–1.75%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 2.53%, markets seemed to expect more rate hikes. It came 7 days after the FOMC meeting of June 15, 2022, at which the Fed raised rates by 75 bp to 1.50–1.75%. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 had pushed energy and food prices higher, a risk the Fed flagged in its own statement. Over June 2022 as a whole, gold finished −1.92% and the Nasdaq 100 −9.00%. Next came the July 27, 2022 meeting, where the Fed raised rates by 75 bp to 2.25–2.50%; CPI inflation for September 2022 later printed 8.2%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2022-06-15 Federal Reserve Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 22-07-08Former Japan PM Shinzo Abe assassinated
  Shinzo Abe, Japan's longest-serving prime minister, was shot dead while giving a campaign speech in Nara. His death shocked a country with very low gun crime.
  Reuters
- 22-06-13Celsius freezes withdrawals, crypto slumps
  Crypto lender Celsius froze all withdrawals citing extreme market conditions. Bitcoin fell 12% that day and the total crypto market dropped below $1 trillion.
  CNBC
202206.15
FOMC · +75 bp to 1.50–1.75%, the largest hike since 1994

Fed funds1.50–1.75% Gold-1.92%NDX-9.00%WTI-7.77% Hawk▲ +75bpNext rate move2022.07 +75bp

“Clearly, today’s 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one, and I do not expect moves of this size to be common.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Powell (May 2022) showed CPI inflation at 8.5% year on year, core PCE at 5.2% and unemployment at 3.6%, with employers adding 301k jobs. With the policy rate at 1.50–1.75% and the 2-year yield near 2.53%, the bond market looked to be pricing in more rate hikes. At this meeting the FOMC raised rates by 75 bp to 1.50–1.75%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 had pushed energy and food prices higher, a risk the Fed flagged in its own statement. By the end of June 2022, gold was −1.92% on the month and the Nasdaq 100 −9.00%. At the next meeting on July 27, 2022 the Fed raised rates by 75 bp to 2.25–2.50%, and CPI inflation for September 2022 came in at 8.2%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2022-06-15 Federal Reserve Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 1
- 22-06-13Celsius freezes withdrawals, crypto slumps
  Crypto lender Celsius froze all withdrawals citing extreme market conditions. Bitcoin fell 12% that day and the total crypto market dropped below $1 trillion.
  CNBC
202205.31
Biden meets Powell and Yellen at the White House on inflation

Fed funds0.75–1.00% Gold-3.61%NDX-1.65%WTI+9.53% NeutralNext rate move2022.06 +75bp

“It starts with a simple proposition: Respect the Fed and respect the Fed’s independence, which I have done and will continue to do.”

Joe Biden · American Presidency Project · WSJ op-ed (May 30)

Why it was said
When Biden said this, the latest data (April 2022) showed CPI inflation at 8.2% year on year, core PCE at 5.3% and unemployment at 3.7%, with employers adding 308k jobs. The policy rate stood at 0.75–1.00%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 2.7%, markets seemed to expect more rate hikes. It came 15 days before the FOMC meeting of June 15, 2022, at which the Fed raised rates by 75 bp to 1.50–1.75%. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 had pushed energy and food prices higher, a risk the Fed flagged in its own statement. Over May 2022 as a whole, gold finished −3.61% and the Nasdaq 100 −1.65%. Next came the July 27, 2022 meeting, where the Fed raised rates by 75 bp to 2.25–2.50%; CPI inflation for August 2022 later printed 8.2%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2022-06-15 Federal Reserve Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 1
- 22-06-13Celsius freezes withdrawals, crypto slumps
  Crypto lender Celsius froze all withdrawals citing extreme market conditions. Bitcoin fell 12% that day and the total crypto market dropped below $1 trillion.
  CNBC
Powell, 1st term2018.02 – 2022.05
202205.04
FOMC press conference · +50 bp to 0.75–1.00%

Fed funds0.75–1.00% Gold-3.61%NDX-1.65%WTI+9.53% Hawk▲ +50bpNext rate move2022.06 +75bp

“I would also expect, though, that job creation will slow.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Powell (April 2022) showed CPI inflation at 8.2% year on year, core PCE at 5.3% and unemployment at 3.7%, with employers adding 308k jobs. With the policy rate at 0.75–1.00% and the 2-year yield near 2.7%, the bond market looked to be pricing in more rate hikes. At this meeting the FOMC raised rates by 50 bp to 0.75–1.00%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 had pushed energy and food prices higher, a risk the Fed flagged in its own statement. By the end of May 2022, gold was −3.61% on the month and the Nasdaq 100 −1.65%. At the next meeting on June 15, 2022 the Fed raised rates by 75 bp to 1.50–1.75%, and CPI inflation for August 2022 came in at 8.2%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2022-05-04 Federal Reserve Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 1
- 22-05-09Terra–Luna stablecoin collapse
  The TerraUSD stablecoin lost its dollar peg and its sister token Luna collapsed, wiping out around $40 billion. The crash dragged the wider crypto market down.
  Reuters
202203.16
FOMC · first hike since 2018: +25 bp to 0.25–0.50%

Fed funds0.25–0.50% Gold+2.55%NDX+4.22%WTI+4.76% Hawk▲ +25bpNext rate move2022.05 +50bp

“And if we conclude that it would be appropriate to raise interest rates more quickly, then we’ll do so.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (February 2022) put CPI inflation at 7.9% year on year, core PCE at 5.6% and unemployment at 3.9%, with employers adding 819k jobs. The policy rate stood at 0.25–0.50%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 1.44%, markets seemed to expect more rate hikes. At this meeting the FOMC raised rates by 25 bp to 0.25–0.50%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 had pushed energy and food prices higher, a risk the Fed flagged in its own statement. Over March 2022 as a whole, gold finished +2.55% and the Nasdaq 100 +4.22%. At the next meeting on May 4, 2022 the Fed raised rates by 50 bp to 0.75–1.00%, and CPI inflation for June 2022 came in at 9.0%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2022-03-16 Federal Reserve Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 3
- 22-03-28Shanghai lockdown begins
  China locked down Shanghai, its financial hub of 25 million people, under its zero-COVID policy. The two-month lockdown snarled ports and factories and hit global supply chains.
  AP
- 22-03-08Oil spikes near $130, LME halts nickel
  Brent crude neared $130 a barrel on fears of losing Russian supply. Nickel prices more than doubled in a day, prompting the London Metal Exchange to suspend trading and cancel deals.
  LME Reuters
- 22-02-24Russia launches full-scale invasion of Ukraine
  Russia invaded Ukraine on several fronts, triggering sweeping Western sanctions. Oil, gas, wheat and metals prices surged, adding to inflation worldwide.
  Reuters
202201.26
FOMC press conference · held at 0.00–0.25%

Fed funds0.00–0.25% Gold-1.84%NDX-8.52%WTI+17.21% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2022.03 +25bp

“As I will explain, against a backdrop of elevated inflation and a strong labor market, our policy has been adapting to the evolving economic environment, and it will continue to do so.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Powell (December 2021) showed CPI inflation at 7.2% year on year, core PCE at 5.1% and unemployment at 3.9%, with employers adding 586k jobs. With the policy rate at 0.00–0.25% and the 2-year yield near 0.73%, the bond market looked to be pricing in more rate hikes. At this meeting the FOMC held rates at 0.00–0.25%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. In Washington, Biden had just signed the roughly $1.2 trillion infrastructure law on November 15, 2021, while rising prices were becoming a political headache. By the end of January 2022, gold was −1.84% on the month and the Nasdaq 100 −8.52%. At the next meeting on March 16, 2022 the Fed raised rates by 25 bp to 0.25–0.50%, and CPI inflation for April 2022 came in at 8.2%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2022-01-26 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 22-01-15Hunga Tonga eruption
  The undersea Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano erupted explosively, sending pressure waves around the globe and tsunamis across the Pacific. Tonga suffered severe damage and was cut off from the world for days.
  NOAA NCEI USGS
- 22-01-05Unrest in Kazakhstan
  Protests over a sharp jump in fuel prices spread across Kazakhstan and turned violent. President Tokayev called in troops from the Russia-led CSTO bloc, briefly disrupting a major uranium and oil producer.
  Reuters
202112.15
FOMC press conference · held at 0.00–0.25%

Fed funds0.00–0.25% Gold+3.10%NDX+1.14%WTI+13.64% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2022.03 +25bp

“In addition, in light of the strengthening labor market and elevated inflation pressures, we decided to speed up the reductions in our asset purchases.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (November 2021) put CPI inflation at 6.9% year on year, core PCE at 4.8% and unemployment at 4.1%, with employers adding 658k jobs. The policy rate stood at 0.00–0.25%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 0.52%, markets seemed to expect more rate hikes. At this meeting the FOMC held rates at 0.00–0.25%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. In Washington, Biden had just signed the roughly $1.2 trillion infrastructure law on November 15, 2021, while rising prices were becoming a political headache. Over December 2021 as a whole, gold finished +3.1% and the Nasdaq 100 +1.14%. At the next meeting on January 26, 2022 the Fed held rates at 0.00–0.25%, and CPI inflation for March 2022 came in at 8.6%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2021-12-15 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 3
- 22-01-05Unrest in Kazakhstan
  Protests over a sharp jump in fuel prices spread across Kazakhstan and turned violent. President Tokayev called in troops from the Russia-led CSTO bloc, briefly disrupting a major uranium and oil producer.
  Reuters
- 21-12-16US debt limit raised by $2.5tn
  Congress raised the debt ceiling by $2.5 trillion, pushing the next showdown into 2023. The move removed a near-term default risk for Treasury markets.
  Congress.gov
- 21-11-26WHO names Omicron a variant of concern
  The WHO classified the newly detected Omicron variant as a variant of concern because of its many mutations. Markets sold off sharply on fears of new lockdowns.
  WHO
202112.10
Biden statement as November CPI hits 6.8%, the highest since 1982

Fed funds0.00–0.25% Gold+3.10%NDX+1.14%WTI+13.64% NeutralNext rate move2022.03 +25bp

“Prices are rising. But developments in the weeks after these data were collected last month show that price and cost increase are slowing, although not as quickly as we'd like.”

Joe Biden · American Presidency Project · C-SPAN

Why it was said
When Biden said this, the latest data (November 2021) showed CPI inflation at 6.9% year on year, core PCE at 4.8% and unemployment at 4.1%, with employers adding 658k jobs. The policy rate stood at 0.00–0.25%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 0.52%, markets seemed to expect more rate hikes. It came 5 days before the FOMC meeting of December 15, 2021, at which the Fed held rates at 0.00–0.25%. In Washington, Biden had just signed the roughly $1.2 trillion infrastructure law on November 15, 2021, while rising prices were becoming a political headache. Over December 2021 as a whole, gold finished +3.1% and the Nasdaq 100 +1.14%. Next came the January 26, 2022 meeting, where the Fed held rates at 0.00–0.25%; CPI inflation for March 2022 later printed 8.6%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2021-12-15 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 21-12-16US debt limit raised by $2.5tn
  Congress raised the debt ceiling by $2.5 trillion, pushing the next showdown into 2023. The move removed a near-term default risk for Treasury markets.
  Congress.gov
- 21-11-26WHO names Omicron a variant of concern
  The WHO classified the newly detected Omicron variant as a variant of concern because of its many mutations. Markets sold off sharply on fears of new lockdowns.
  WHO
202111.22
Biden renominates Powell for a second term as Chair

Fed funds0.00–0.25% Gold-0.58%NDX+1.80%WTI-20.81% NeutralNext rate move2022.03 +25bp

“We will use our tools both to support the economy and a strong labor market, and to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched.”

Jerome Powell · Federal Reserve

“…at this moment … of both enormous potential and enormous uncertainty for our economy, we need stability and independence at the Federal Reserve.”

Joe Biden · American Presidency Project · C-SPAN

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (October 2021) put CPI inflation at 6.2% year on year, core PCE at 4.4% and unemployment at 4.5%, with employers adding 801k jobs. The policy rate stood at 0.00–0.25%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 0.48%, markets seemed to expect little change in the near term. It came 19 days after the FOMC meeting of November 3, 2021, at which the Fed held rates at 0.00–0.25%. In Washington, Biden had just signed the roughly $1.2 trillion infrastructure law on November 15, 2021, while rising prices were becoming a political headache. Over November 2021 as a whole, gold finished −0.58% and the Nasdaq 100 +1.8%. At the next meeting on December 15, 2021 the Fed held rates at 0.00–0.25%, and CPI inflation for February 2022 came in at 7.9%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2021-11-03 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 1
- 21-11-26WHO names Omicron a variant of concern
  The WHO classified the newly detected Omicron variant as a variant of concern because of its many mutations. Markets sold off sharply on fears of new lockdowns.
  WHO
202111.10
Biden statement as October CPI hits 6.2%, the highest since 1990

Fed funds0.00–0.25% Gold-0.58%NDX+1.80%WTI-20.81% NeutralNext rate move2022.03 +25bp

“Inflation hurts Americans pocketbooks, and reversing this trend is a top priority for me.”

Joe Biden · NPR · AP

Why it was said
When Biden said this, the latest data (October 2021) showed CPI inflation at 6.2% year on year, core PCE at 4.4% and unemployment at 4.5%, with employers adding 801k jobs. The policy rate stood at 0.00–0.25%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 0.48%, markets seemed to expect little change in the near term. It came 7 days after the FOMC meeting of November 3, 2021, at which the Fed held rates at 0.00–0.25%. Politically, the new Biden administration was pushing its $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, signed into law on March 11, 2021. Over November 2021 as a whole, gold finished −0.58% and the Nasdaq 100 +1.8%. Next came the December 15, 2021 meeting, where the Fed held rates at 0.00–0.25%; CPI inflation for February 2022 later printed 7.9%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2021-11-03 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 1
- 21-11-26WHO names Omicron a variant of concern
  The WHO classified the newly detected Omicron variant as a variant of concern because of its many mutations. Markets sold off sharply on fears of new lockdowns.
  WHO
202111.03
FOMC · taper begins: purchases cut by $15B a month

Fed funds0.00–0.25% Gold-0.58%NDX+1.80%WTI-20.81% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2022.03 +25bp

“At today’s meeting, the Committee judged that the economy has met this test, and decided to begin reducing the pace of its asset purchases.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Powell (October 2021) showed CPI inflation at 6.2% year on year, core PCE at 4.4% and unemployment at 4.5%, with employers adding 801k jobs. With the policy rate at 0.00–0.25% and the 2-year yield near 0.48%, the bond market looked to be pricing in little change in the near term. At this meeting the FOMC held rates at 0.00–0.25%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. Politically, the new Biden administration was pushing its $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, signed into law on March 11, 2021. By the end of November 2021, gold was −0.58% on the month and the Nasdaq 100 +1.8%. At the next meeting on December 15, 2021 the Fed held rates at 0.00–0.25%, and CPI inflation for February 2022 came in at 7.9%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2021-11-03 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 1
- 21-10-14US debt ceiling raised short-term
  Congress passed a $480 billion short-term increase in the debt limit, averting a default only until December. It set up another fiscal deadline later in the year.
  Congress.gov
202109.22
FOMC press conference · held at 0.00–0.25%

Fed funds0.00–0.25% Gold-3.36%NDX-5.73%WTI+9.53% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2022.03 +25bp

“And 11 million job openings, very widespread reports from employers all over the economy saying it’s quite difficult to hire people, wages moving up, and that kind—so, quite a tight labor market.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
When Powell said this, the latest data (August 2021) showed CPI inflation at 5.2% year on year, core PCE at 3.9% and unemployment at 5.1%, with employers adding 552k jobs. The policy rate stood at 0.00–0.25%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 0.2%, markets seemed to expect little change in the near term. The FOMC held rates at 0.00–0.25% that day, and these words were part of the explanation. Politically, the new Biden administration was pushing its $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, signed into law on March 11, 2021. Over September 2021 as a whole, gold finished −3.36% and the Nasdaq 100 −5.73%. Next came the November 3, 2021 meeting, where the Fed held rates at 0.00–0.25%; CPI inflation for December 2021 later printed 7.2%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2021-09-22 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 3
- 21-10-04OPEC+ holds course, oil at 7-year high
  OPEC+ stuck to its plan of adding only 400,000 barrels a day per month despite calls for more supply. US crude jumped to a seven-year high above $78, feeding the energy crunch.
  Reuters
- 21-09-26German election ends the Merkel era
  Olaf Scholz's SPD narrowly beat Merkel's CDU/CSU, 25.7% to 24.1%. The SPD went on to form a three-way coalition with the Greens and FDP, ending Merkel's 16 years as chancellor.
  Reuters
- 21-09-20Evergrande debt crisis rattles markets
  Fears that China Evergrande, the world's most indebted property developer, would default hit global stocks. The crisis exposed deep stress in China's property sector.
  Reuters
202108.27
Jackson Hole speech (virtual)

Fed funds0.00–0.25% Gold+0.30%NDX+4.16%WTI-7.37% DoveNext rate move2022.03 +25bp

“The job of monetary policy is to promote maximum employment and price stability as the economy works through this challenging period.”

Jerome Powell · Federal Reserve

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Powell (July 2021) showed CPI inflation at 5.2% year on year, core PCE at 3.8% and unemployment at 5.4%, with employers adding 942k jobs. With the policy rate at 0.00–0.25% and the 2-year yield near 0.19%, the bond market looked to be pricing in little change in the near term. It came 26 days before the FOMC meeting of September 22, 2021, at which the Fed held rates at 0.00–0.25%. Politically, the new Biden administration was pushing its $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, signed into law on March 11, 2021. By the end of August 2021, gold was +0.3% on the month and the Nasdaq 100 +4.16%. At the next meeting on November 3, 2021 the Fed held rates at 0.00–0.25%, and CPI inflation for November 2021 came in at 6.9%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2021-09-22 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 21-08-29Hurricane Ida makes landfall
  Hurricane Ida hit Louisiana as a powerful Category 4 storm, then caused deadly flooding in the US Northeast. It disrupted Gulf of Mexico oil output and refineries.
  NOAA
- 21-08-15Taliban take Kabul
  The Taliban captured Kabul as US-led forces withdrew, and the Afghan government collapsed. Chaotic evacuations followed, ending a 20-year US military presence.
  Reuters
202107.28
FOMC press conference · held at 0.00–0.25%

Fed funds0.00–0.25% Gold+2.31%NDX+2.78%WTI+0.65% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2022.03 +25bp

“Inflation has increased notably and will likely remain elevated in coming months before moderating.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (June 2021) put CPI inflation at 5.3% year on year, core PCE at 3.8% and unemployment at 5.9%, with employers adding 755k jobs. The policy rate stood at 0.00–0.25%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 0.25%, markets seemed to expect little change in the near term. At this meeting the FOMC held rates at 0.00–0.25%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. Politically, the new Biden administration was pushing its $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, signed into law on March 11, 2021. Over July 2021 as a whole, gold finished +2.31% and the Nasdaq 100 +2.78%. At the next meeting on September 22, 2021 the Fed held rates at 0.00–0.25%, and CPI inflation for October 2021 came in at 6.2%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2021-07-28 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 3
- 21-08-15Taliban take Kabul
  The Taliban captured Kabul as US-led forces withdrew, and the Afghan government collapsed. Chaotic evacuations followed, ending a 20-year US military presence.
  Reuters
- 21-07-24China crackdown on tutoring and big tech
  Beijing banned for-profit tutoring in core school subjects, wiping out much of the value of listed education companies. Together with curbs on tech platforms, it triggered a sharp sell-off in Chinese stocks.
  Reuters CNBC
- 21-07-12Deadly floods in western Europe
  Extreme rainfall caused catastrophic flooding in western Germany and Belgium, killing more than 200 people. The disaster damaged infrastructure and became a major issue in Germany's election campaign.
  Reuters
202107.19
Biden on the economy: price increases “expected to be temporary”; the Fed is independent

Fed funds0.00–0.25% Gold+2.31%NDX+2.78%WTI+0.65% NeutralNext rate move2022.03 +25bp

“As I made clear to Chairman Powell of the Federal Reserve when we met recently, the Fed is independent. It should take whatever steps it deems necessary to support a strong, durable economic recovery.”

Joe Biden · American Presidency Project · Reuters

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Biden (June 2021) showed CPI inflation at 5.3% year on year, core PCE at 3.8% and unemployment at 5.9%, with employers adding 755k jobs. With the policy rate at 0.00–0.25% and the 2-year yield near 0.25%, the bond market looked to be pricing in little change in the near term. It came 9 days before the FOMC meeting of July 28, 2021, at which the Fed held rates at 0.00–0.25%. Politically, the new Biden administration was pushing its $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, signed into law on March 11, 2021. By the end of July 2021, gold was +2.31% on the month and the Nasdaq 100 +2.78%. At the next meeting on September 22, 2021 the Fed held rates at 0.00–0.25%, and CPI inflation for October 2021 came in at 6.2%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2021-07-28 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 21-07-24China crackdown on tutoring and big tech
  Beijing banned for-profit tutoring in core school subjects, wiping out much of the value of listed education companies. Together with curbs on tech platforms, it triggered a sharp sell-off in Chinese stocks.
  Reuters CNBC
- 21-07-12Deadly floods in western Europe
  Extreme rainfall caused catastrophic flooding in western Germany and Belgium, killing more than 200 people. The disaster damaged infrastructure and became a major issue in Germany's election campaign.
  Reuters
202107.14
Semiannual testimony to Congress

Fed funds0.00–0.25% Gold+2.31%NDX+2.78%WTI+0.65% NeutralNext rate move2022.03 +25bp

“At the Federal Reserve, we are strongly committed to achieving the monetary policy goals that Congress has given us: maximum employment and price stability.”

Jerome Powell · Federal Reserve

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (June 2021) put CPI inflation at 5.3% year on year, core PCE at 3.8% and unemployment at 5.9%, with employers adding 755k jobs. The policy rate stood at 0.00–0.25%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 0.25%, markets seemed to expect little change in the near term. It came 14 days before the FOMC meeting of July 28, 2021, at which the Fed held rates at 0.00–0.25%. Politically, the new Biden administration was pushing its $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, signed into law on March 11, 2021. Over July 2021 as a whole, gold finished +2.31% and the Nasdaq 100 +2.78%. At the next meeting on September 22, 2021 the Fed held rates at 0.00–0.25%, and CPI inflation for October 2021 came in at 6.2%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2021-07-28 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 2
- 21-07-24China crackdown on tutoring and big tech
  Beijing banned for-profit tutoring in core school subjects, wiping out much of the value of listed education companies. Together with curbs on tech platforms, it triggered a sharp sell-off in Chinese stocks.
  Reuters CNBC
- 21-07-12Deadly floods in western Europe
  Extreme rainfall caused catastrophic flooding in western Germany and Belgium, killing more than 200 people. The disaster damaged infrastructure and became a major issue in Germany's election campaign.
  Reuters
202106.16
FOMC press conference · held at 0.00–0.25%

Fed funds0.00–0.25% Gold-6.88%NDX+6.34%WTI+10.78% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2022.03 +25bp

“And if you look through the current time frame and think one and two years out, we’re going to be looking at a very, very strong labor market.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
When Powell said this, the latest data (May 2021) showed CPI inflation at 4.9% year on year, core PCE at 3.4% and unemployment at 5.8%, with employers adding 478k jobs. The policy rate stood at 0.00–0.25%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 0.14%, markets seemed to expect little change in the near term. The FOMC held rates at 0.00–0.25% that day, and these words were part of the explanation. Politically, the new Biden administration was pushing its $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, signed into law on March 11, 2021. Over June 2021 as a whole, gold finished −6.88% and the Nasdaq 100 +6.34%. Next came the July 28, 2021 meeting, where the Fed held rates at 0.00–0.25%; CPI inflation for September 2021 later printed 5.4%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2021-06-16 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 1
- 21-06-05G7 backs a 15% global minimum corporate tax
  G7 finance ministers agreed to support a global minimum corporate tax of at least 15% and new rules on taxing big multinationals where they sell. The deal fed into the OECD's two-pillar reform signed by over 130 countries later that year.
  UK Government
202104.28
FOMC press conference · held at 0–0.25% · asset purchases $120B/month

Fed funds0.00–0.25% Gold+3.15%NDX+5.88%WTI+7.47% Dove■ 0bpNext rate move2022.03 +25bp

“So, no, it is not time yet.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
Going into these remarks, the most recent figures (March 2021) put CPI inflation at 2.7% year on year, core PCE at 2.1% and unemployment at 6.1%, with employers adding 852k jobs. The policy rate stood at 0.00–0.25%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 0.16%, markets seemed to expect little change in the near term. At this meeting the FOMC held rates at 0.00–0.25%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. Politically, the new Biden administration was pushing its $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, signed into law on March 11, 2021. Over April 2021 as a whole, gold finished +3.15% and the Nasdaq 100 +5.88%. At the next meeting on June 16, 2021 the Fed held rates at 0.00–0.25%, and CPI inflation for July 2021 came in at 5.2%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2021-04-28 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 3
- 21-05-15Delta variant surge, India second wave
  The Delta variant drove a devastating second wave in India and then spread worldwide. It delayed reopening plans and kept supply chains under pressure.
  WHO
- 21-05-10Israel–Hamas 11-day war
  Fighting between Israel and Hamas erupted on 10 May after tensions in Jerusalem, with heavy air strikes on Gaza and rocket fire into Israel. A ceasefire took effect on 21 May after more than 250 deaths.
  AP
- 21-05-07Colonial Pipeline ransomware shutdown
  A ransomware attack by the DarkSide group forced Colonial Pipeline, the largest US fuel pipeline, to shut down for several days. Panic buying caused petrol shortages along the US East Coast.
  Reuters US DOE
202103.17
FOMC press conference · held at 0.00–0.25%

Fed funds0.00–0.25% Gold-0.87%NDX+1.41%WTI-3.80% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2022.03 +25bp

“Overall inflation remains below our 2 percent longer-run objective.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
When Powell said this, the latest data (February 2021) showed CPI inflation at 1.7% year on year, core PCE at 1.6% and unemployment at 6.2%, with employers adding 517k jobs. The policy rate stood at 0.00–0.25%; judging by a 2-year Treasury yield of about 0.14%, markets seemed to expect little change in the near term. The FOMC held rates at 0.00–0.25% that day, and these words were part of the explanation. Politically, the new Biden administration was pushing its $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, signed into law on March 11, 2021. Over March 2021 as a whole, gold finished −0.87% and the Nasdaq 100 +1.41%. Next came the April 28, 2021 meeting, where the Fed held rates at 0.00–0.25%; CPI inflation for June 2021 later printed 5.3%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2021-03-17 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 4
- 21-04-01Global chip shortage forces auto output cuts
  A shortage of semiconductors forced Ford and other carmakers to halt or cut production lines. The squeeze pushed up new and used car prices, a visible driver of 2021 inflation.
  Reuters
- 21-03-26Archegos margin-call collapse
  Family office Archegos Capital defaulted on margin calls after its heavily leveraged swap positions in a few stocks fell. Banks dumped the positions and lost more than $10 billion, with Credit Suisse and Nomura hit hardest.
  SEC
- 21-03-23Ever Given blocks the Suez Canal for six days
  The giant container ship Ever Given ran aground and blocked the Suez Canal, holding up hundreds of vessels. The jam added to global supply-chain strains and shipping costs already rising during the pandemic.
  Reuters
- 21-03-11US $1.9tn American Rescue Plan signed
  President Biden signed a $1.9 trillion pandemic relief law including $1,400 direct payments, extended jobless benefits and aid to states. The scale of the stimulus fuelled debate over whether it would overheat the economy and push up inflation.
  Congress.gov
202101.27
FOMC press conference · held at 0.00–0.25%

Fed funds0.00–0.25% Gold-2.52%NDX+0.29%WTI+7.58% Neutral■ 0bpNext rate move2022.03 +25bp

“And that’s really a key reason why the recovery has been as strong as it’s been.”

Jerome Powell · Fed transcript

Why it was said
For context, the newest data available to Powell (December 2020) showed CPI inflation at 1.3% year on year and unemployment at 6.7%. The policy rate stood at 0.00–0.25%. At this meeting the FOMC held rates at 0.00–0.25%, and these remarks were the explanation for that call. Politically, the new Biden administration was pushing its $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, signed into law on March 11, 2021. By the end of January 2021, gold was −2.52% on the month and the Nasdaq 100 +0.29%. At the next meeting on March 17, 2021 the Fed held rates at 0.00–0.25%, and CPI inflation for April 2021 came in at 4.1%.
FRED: CPI FRED: Unemployment FRED: 2Y Treasury Fed: FOMC statement 2021-01-27 Congress.gov Yahoo Finance (GC=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^NDX)
More · The world at the time 4
- 21-02-15Texas winter storm power crisis
  Winter Storm Uri froze power plants and gas supply, forcing Texas grid operator ERCOT to order 20,000 MW of rolling blackouts, the largest in US history. More than 4.5 million Texans lost power, some for up to four days, and natural-gas prices spiked.
  FERC
- 21-02-01Military coup in Myanmar
  Myanmar's army seized power hours before the new parliament was due to open, detaining Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint. It declared a one-year state of emergency, citing alleged election fraud, which the UN condemned as a serious blow to democratic reform.
  UN News Reuters
- 21-01-27GameStop short squeeze rattles markets
  Retail traders coordinating online drove GameStop and other heavily shorted 'meme stocks' sharply higher, inflicting big losses on short-selling funds. Some brokers restricted buying, and the SEC later published a staff report on the episode.
  SEC
- 21-01-06Storming of the US Capitol
  A mob of Trump supporters broke into the Capitol as Congress met to certify the 2020 election result. The Justice Department later charged about 1,580 people over the attack.
  US DOJ

The hawk–dove meter is an editorial reading of each remark, not investment advice.

← Back to rate history

Enjoyed this? Please share it.